President Trump promised reporters a peace deal with Iran by Monday. On Sunday morning, he said Vice President Vance was already on his way to Pakistan for negotiations. Neither claim was accurate. Vance was still in Washington, waiting for a green light from Tehran that never came, trapped in a standoff that has pushed the region toward the edge of renewed conflict.
The gap between Trump's public statements and ground reality reveals a negotiation in free fall. With just one day left before the ceasefire expires, Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz, military officials on both sides are escalating rather than talking, and fundamental questions remain about whether anyone in Tehran is actually authorized to strike a deal.
Last Friday, a breakthrough seemed plausible. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced the strait was "completely open," markets rallied, and Trump's claim of a deal within days appeared credible. The negotiating teams had reached agreement on the basic contours: sanctions relief, controls on uranium enrichment, and unfrozen Iranian assets.
Then the situation reversed in hours. Within 24 hours of Araghchi's announcement, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps opened fire on commercial tankers in the strait, rejecting any deal the Iranian negotiators had outlined. U.S. officials concluded they had been negotiating with Speaker of Parliament Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and others, only to have the IRGC and its commander Gen. Ahmad Vahidi overrule them.
"We thought they were negotiating with the right people. They reached the cocktail of what they had agreed to, what could be announced," a senior administration official told Axios. "But what happened is the Iranian team went back and the IRGC and those kinds of people said 'oh, no, no. You don't speak for us.'"
The factions fighting for control in Tehran may not even know who holds real power. "We aren't sure who's in charge and neither do they," a second U.S. official said. "That's going to have to work itself out."
Trump's own statements have deepened the confusion and the mistrust. While his negotiating team discussed freezing $20 billion in Iranian assets in exchange for curbs on uranium enrichment, Trump repeatedly told reporters that Iran had agreed to abandon both enrichment and its nuclear stockpile outright, with no financial compensation required. That was false.
On the operational side, Trump kept changing his story about whether Vance was traveling to Islamabad, when he would leave, and whether he was already airborne. Each contradiction fueled suspicion among Iranian leadership that the entire diplomatic track was a cover story for a military strike.
Trump also interspersed threats to destroy Iranian bridges and power plants into his optimistic statements about imminent peace. Tehran concluded the real plan was conquest, not negotiation.
"Honoring commitments is the basis of meaningful dialogue," Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on Monday. "Deep historical mistrust in Iran toward U.S. government conduct remains, while unconstructive and contradictory signals from American officials carry a bitter message: they seek Iran's surrender. Iranians do not submit to force."
Pakistani mediators have been working to salvage talks by shuttling proposals between Washington and Tehran. A new draft proposal covers sanctions, uranium enrichment, asset access, nuclear material, and future arrangements. The exact terms remain contested. Trump insists he will not unfreeze Iranian funds, though his officials privately acknowledge he probably would for the right package. Iran's negotiators are divided on enrichment, with options ranging from promises not to build weapons to temporary halts of 5, 15, or more years.
Trump's team believes Iran is buckling under economic pressure from the blockade. "We think they can't survive this. The economic devastation is real," one official said. "The Persians are tough and stoic. But this is a lot." That pressure has driven discussions of stopgap measures, including opening a limited corridor through the strait to ease the financial squeeze.
Beneath the diplomatic language, U.S. officials are preparing for failure. Trump's bombing campaign that began February 28 was supposed to conclude within six weeks. He met that deadline. Now officials are discussing what a renewed military campaign would look like, including potential operations against the strategic Kharg Island.
"So far they have not gotten to the place where Donald Trump has said let's do it. And he's not at the point of saying it's in bad faith and we're going to start dropping bombs," one official told Axios. "We're optimistic. The time frame might be too optimistic."
One administration official summed up Trump's position: "He's over it. He wants it done. He doesn't like Iran holding control of the strait over the Middle East. He doesn't want to fight anymore. But he will if he feels he has to."
With the clock running down and both sides entrenched, the window for extending the ceasefire is narrowing by the hour. If talks collapse by end of day Monday, the region faces either a third phase of conflict or a negotiated pause, depending on whether Tehran's political factions can align or whether Washington decides military objectives outweigh diplomatic risk.
Author James Rodriguez: "Trump's erratic messaging and false claims have tanked what could have been a real opening with Tehran, and now both sides are positioning for conflict instead of compromise."
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