Former American negotiators of the 2015 Iran nuclear accord say recent military confrontations have fundamentally altered Tehran's strategic position, giving it new reasons to resist international pressure on its atomic program.
The two senior architects of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, argue that US and Israeli military actions, combined with Iran's demonstration of control over the Strait of Hormuz, have equipped the country with leverage it previously lacked. By showing it can disrupt one of the world's most critical shipping routes, Iran has discovered what negotiators describe as a way to offset the power imbalance between itself and Washington.
The envoys contend that Iran's ability to throttle global energy supplies through the strait represents a tangible asset in future negotiations. Rather than weakening Tehran's resolve to abandon nuclear ambitions, the confrontation appears to have strengthened it.
The analysis reflects growing concern among Obama administration veterans that the Trump-era strategic approach has backfired. By withdrawing from the JCPOA in 2018 and escalating military pressure, these former officials suggest the US inadvertently demonstrated to Iran exactly what kind of asymmetric power it could wield in response.
The envoys' assessment signals deeper complications ahead for any future nuclear talks. Iran's demonstrated willingness to close the strait and its apparent confidence in weathering military strikes have created conditions where sanctions relief alone may no longer serve as sufficient inducement for limiting uranium enrichment.
Their warning underscores a central challenge in Middle East diplomacy: how to negotiate with an adversary that believes it has found new ways to defend itself against American pressure.
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