Benjamin Netanyahu walks into the Oval Office on Tuesday facing a starkly different Donald Trump than he encountered in their first seven meetings since the president took office. The Israeli prime minister arrives considerably weakened, his influence over U.S. war strategy eroded by five months of diverging interests, mounting frustration, and deepening mutual suspicion.
The shift is dramatic. In late February, Trump and Netanyahu presented a unified front on Middle Eastern military action. By late July, their relationship has fractured across multiple fronts, with Trump making major decisions without consulting Netanyahu and, in several cases, directly overruling his objections.
The deterioration accelerated after an April ceasefire agreement. Netanyahu opposed Trump's mid-June memorandum of understanding with Iran, believing the Israeli military needed more time to further degrade the regime's capabilities. Trump signed it anyway. When Netanyahu attempted to block a separate deal to sell F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, Trump shut down the criticism bluntly. "Nobody tells me what we should be selling or not," Trump said Monday, adding that Turkey had been a tremendous ally to him. "Turkey's not a big fan of Israel and not a big fan of Bibi."
The communication breakdown has become conspicuous. In the war's early months, Trump and Netanyahu spoke almost daily to coordinate military strategy. Those calls have grown increasingly infrequent. Netanyahu has begun routing inquiries about Trump's thinking through Secretary of State Marco Rubio instead. Last Friday, Netanyahu spent hours in marathon cabinet sessions largely uncertain about Trump's plans, prompting Israeli military preparations for worst-case scenarios. He learned only late Friday night that Trump had decided to pause strikes against Iran.
Netanyahu also struggled simply to secure a Tuesday meeting. He wanted to visit the White House the previous week but couldn't get on Trump's calendar.
Recent reversals have caught Netanyahu flat-footed. He was blindsided by a nuclear agreement Trump signed with Saudi Arabia, disappointed to discover that the deal included no requirement for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, a goal Netanyahu has long pursued. When pressed Monday, Trump acknowledged he hadn't actually discussed the normalization condition with Saudi leaders. The agreement heads to Congress this week without any Israeli normalization language, according to sources with direct knowledge.
On Iran negotiations, Trump acknowledged Monday that distance exists between himself and Netanyahu. "We have a little difference, but pretty close," he told reporters aboard Air Force One, though the gap appears wider than his careful language suggests.
Netanyahu's political standing has cratered in Washington. He faces hostility from Democrats, skepticism within Trump's inner circle, and growing disdain from the MAGA base. Senior Trump officials have become openly critical, accusing Netanyahu of making consistently inaccurate predictions about the war's trajectory. One senior U.S. official summarized the sentiment bluntly: "He'll come, he'll make his promises and then we'll have to check everything out."
In public, Trump continues to praise his relationship with Netanyahu as strong. Private conversations tell a different story. Trump has expressed frustration with the Israeli leader, and multiple figures in his circle view Netanyahu with open disdain. Vice President J.D. Vance has been among those accusing Netanyahu of rosy forecasting that failed to materialize.
Netanyahu arrives facing a domestic clock counting down to elections three months away. His political survival and personal legal jeopardy hinge partly on the outcome. He wants Trump's public endorsement. Trump has declined to provide it. Asked four times in recent weeks whether he endorses Netanyahu, Trump has stopped short each time, instead referring to Netanyahu in the past tense as a "great wartime prime minister."
Tuesday's meeting is currently scheduled as a private, closed-door session. That could change. If Netanyahu decides to bring cameras, he could emerge with a triumphant photo opportunity and the optics of presidential support. Alternatively, he could face a public rebuke reminiscent of Trump's televised confrontations with President Zelensky.
Netanyahu has mounted comebacks before. He has entered previous meetings with Trump concerned about alignment and departed with Trump more closely aligned to his position than when he arrived. But those meetings occurred when Netanyahu wielded considerably more leverage and when Trump's own instincts ran more naturally toward his agenda.
This time, the momentum runs the opposite direction.
Author James Rodriguez: "Netanyahu's best days of steering Trump policy are behind him, and both men know it."
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