The Democratic Party is discovering what Republicans learned the hard way: The party in the minority doesn't just benefit from voter anger at those in power. It can also become the target of it.
Populist energy coursing through the left since President Trump returned to the White House has upended Democratic primary races from coast to coast, creating a divide between establishment operatives and grassroots activists. The fallout is reshaping who Democrats are fielding in races that will determine control of the House in November.
Last week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee suffered its third consecutive primary defeat when former state Rep. Amish Shah won a House nomination despite the party apparatus backing ex-TV journalist Marlene Galán-Woods. The DCCC had poured $500,000 into a joint ad buy for Galán-Woods, and outside Democratic groups spent millions more. Shah's grassroots, door-to-door approach proved stronger than institutional firepower.
Shah's victory follows similar upsets in California and Maine, where progressive challengers Randy Villegas and Matt Dunlap toppled DCCC-backed opponents. All three races involve seats central to Democrats' strategy to regain the House.
The pattern has alarmed establishment figures. "The reality is that socialism doesn't sell with most folks, and neither does their anti-American, anti-cop extremist rhetoric," Rep. Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey told Axios. "If we let socialists and their extremist message hijack the Democratic Party, then we risk losing the races we should win in November."
Maine exemplifies the chaos. Self-described oyster farmer Graham Platner won the Democratic Senate nomination over Maine Gov. Janet Mills, the choice of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Platner later withdrew after allegations of sexual assault, which he denied. The state party then turned to Troy Jackson, a progressive logger and state Senate majority leader already facing scrutiny over alleged angry outbursts.
Progressive lawmakers reject the dire warnings. Rep. Ro Khanna of California argued that anti-establishment candidates are resonating with voters who view politics as corrupt. "Running chatGPT bland centrists is not the answer," he said.
The structural problem
Democrats face headwinds beyond primary discord. Mid-decade redistricting after the Supreme Court narrowed the Voting Rights Act gave Republicans a significant advantage, particularly in Southern states. House Democrats now need to win nearly every competitive seat just to claim a majority, even if they win the national popular vote.
Senate Democrats confront an equally daunting map. They must flip seats in multiple states Trump won in 2024 to gain control of the chamber.
Michigan's Aug. 4 primaries will test whether Democrats' divisions matter in the general election. Centrist Rep. Haley Stevens and progressive Abdul El-Sayed are locked in a fierce battle for the Democratic Senate nomination in a race expected to be fiercely competitive. Party leaders dread an El-Sayed victory but acknowledge Stevens has faced significant vulnerabilities, including the recent firing of a consultant moonlighting for Palantir.
In a House race in the same state, establishment Democrats worry that moderate candidates may split votes and inadvertently propel progressive Will Lawrence to the nomination.
Progressive candidates have demonstrated they can win in safely Democratic districts and urban areas. The open question , the one keeping party brass awake , is whether their brand of politics can prevail in the swing districts that will decide which party controls Congress. Generic polling suggests Democrats are positioned for a solid cycle. The details look far messier.
Author James Rodriguez: "The establishment's nightmare is that insurgent candidates succeed in November's swing races and reshape the party permanently."
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