House Republicans departed Washington this week for a five-week summer recess having pushed through a war spending bill, a massive defense budget, and new voting restrictions. But the timing could not be worse: they are heading into their districts just three months before the midterms, armed with legislation that contradicts what polling shows voters actually want.
The centerpiece was a $95 billion spending blueprint that Speaker Mike Johnson framed as routine military readiness. "Bullets and bombs to finish the job and come home safely and victoriously," is how Republican budget writer Jodey Arrington described it on the House floor, studiously avoiding any mention of Iran, war, or conflict.
The awkward language telegraphed the trap: voters disapprove of the Iran military operations, inflation is eating into household budgets, and Democratic messaging is homing in on a simple charge. When the House voted on a symbolic resolution requiring Trump to withdraw troops from combat in Iran, four Republicans crossed over to join Democrats. The margin was small, but the symbolic blow to Johnson was sharp.
"Hundreds of members are about to go home, and a lot of folks are going to get crushed by their constituents," Democratic congressman Jason Crow said after the vote. "They're going to hear that people are losing healthcare, losing their homes, losing farms, losing small businesses. And why the hell are you supporting $100 billion for another endless war that's not making us safer?"
Johnson complicated matters further by attaching voting restrictions to the defense bill itself. The merged legislation would ban mail-in ballots and impose new identification requirements on voters. Democrats immediately signaled they would block it in the Senate, and Senate Republican leader John Thune said he would place the entire budget blueprint on hold, using it as potential leverage in other negotiations.
The congressional dynamics reveal a fracturing GOP majority. House Republicans passed their bills on party-line votes, but Senate Republicans have shown little appetite for a third reconciliation bill this Congress, the procedural maneuver that would let them bypass the filibuster. The result: major pieces of GOP legislation now face an uncertain path, and the Iran spending question could drag into September.
Republicans leaving town nonetheless projected confidence. Richard Hudson, who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, pointed to redistricting victories and argued that Democrats would need to flip Trump-won seats to gain the majority, a difficult needle to thread. Rightwing South Carolina congressman Ralph Norman predicted Trump was on the verge of ending the Iran conflict quickly.
Not everyone stuck to the script. Don Bacon of Nebraska, one of the few Republicans representing a district Joe Biden won, mildly rebuked the administration's approach. "The go-it-alone approach fails us in the end," Bacon said, suggesting Trump should work more across the aisle. Bacon is not seeking reelection.
The Democratic Party, meanwhile, is wrestling with its own crisis of identity and morale. A Washington Post-Ipsos poll released this week showed that while the party's most motivated voters plan to turn out, Democrats have only a scant advantage over Republicans in the wider electorate. Progressive congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez suggested the party needed to clarify what it stands for beyond branding.
Author James Rodriguez: "Republicans are betting they can sell war spending and voting curbs to constituents struggling with rent and groceries, a gamble that looks worse by the day."
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