Lawmakers on both sides of Capitol Hill are cautiously optimistic about dodging a third government shutdown before the November election, though negotiations remain fluid and the calendar is tightening.
The Senate is moving deliberately to craft a continuing resolution that extends funding beyond election day, sidestepping the partisan fights that have derailed previous attempts this year. Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire said the goal is clear: get past the vote without entangling the measure in campaign politics.
"People understand that it would be helpful to have a continuing resolution that extends beyond the election, so it doesn't get all bound up in partisan discussions around the elections," Shaheen told reporters.
Republican Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii offered a more measured assessment, characterizing the mood as something other than negative. "I just think everybody's trying to give ourselves room to find a bipartisan agreement, and we are not there yet," he said.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has signaled he plans to reject the House spending package that passed late Tuesday night. Instead, he is building support for his own bipartisan approach, with Republican Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi predicting smoother sailing if the Senate can move quickly. "Perhaps we can get ours passed, and then when the House comes back the last week of August, they can pass it there," Wicker said. "I don't think there's going to be much controversy there, unless the Democrats change their minds."
The tension between chambers is real. House Republicans are frustrated with Thune's decision to hold back on budget reconciliation until government funding is secured, viewing it as a delaying tactic for a legislative priority. House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington called the move a mistake, but Thune's Senate Republican counterpart Ron Johnson appears aligned with the sequencing, especially as progress emerges on supplemental defense spending within the continuing resolution framework.
Senate leadership faces a crowded agenda beyond the continuing resolution. Intelligence surveillance authority under FISA Section 702 remains lapsed. The National Defense Authorization Act stalled this month and requires another push. Leadership is also pressing forward on nominations, including Jay Clayton for director of national intelligence and Todd Blanche for attorney general. A Russia sanctions package is gaining momentum after the death of Senator Lindsey Graham, who championed the bill.
The cryptocurrency CLARITY Act and various other measures are also waiting for floor time, though finding 60 votes remains uncertain.
The wildcard is external events. Earlier this year, Medicaid cuts and ICE shootings disrupted bipartisan funding talks. Escalating tensions with Iran are now complicating defense spending negotiations, with Democrats largely opposed to additional military funding tied to the conflict while Republicans remain divided on scope and size.
Thune has kept one card close to his vest: using reconciliation to fund the government along party lines if the bipartisan path collapses. But if Senate progress holds, that threat may never need to materialize.
Author James Rodriguez: "The Senate's measured approach beats another shutdown standoff, but one geopolitical flare-up could unravel months of work in a day."
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