House Speaker Mike Johnson is attempting a legislative tightrope this week, and Senate Republicans are watching closely before committing to his plan. The GOP-controlled Senate is holding back from fully endorsing Johnson's push for a budget resolution that would unlock a third reconciliation package to replenish Pentagon weapons stocks, instead keeping their options open while the House makes its move first.
Senate Republicans frame reconciliation 3.0 as a backup plan, not a first choice. They're willing to let Johnson try passing a rule, a short-term government funding bill, and a budget resolution in quick succession, but skepticism runs deep on Capitol Hill.
"The tale of the tape is going to be what the House can do," said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia. "Can the House pass it? I don't think that's a done deal. It's not offset, so I think there's going to be some troubled water there."
President Trump is applying pressure from the White House, explicitly urging House Republicans to vote yes on the budget resolution this week. On Monday, Trump posted on Truth Social calling the measure "an important first step towards getting a Budget Bill." OMB Director Russ Vought is scheduled to address the Republican conference on Tuesday to try closing the deal.
The administration's push signals concern about the likelihood that normal appropriations will not be finalized by the Oct. 1 government funding deadline. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will testify before the Senate Appropriations Committee on Tuesday requesting tens of billions of dollars to replenish munitions, particularly those used in operations against Iran.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune tempered expectations about the reconciliation approach, telling reporters the path is "easier said than done" even if the House approves it. Not all Senate Republicans back the idea. "I am not a big fan of reconciliation whether it's 1.0, 2.0 or 3.0," said Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.
Some Senate Republicans want a bigger defense package with additional funding, while others insist that at least some of the approximately $95 billion in new spending be offset against other budget items. The House proposal includes roughly $60 billion to replenish weapons stocks and munitions depleted by recent military operations.
The Senate's two-track strategy reflects deep uncertainty about Johnson's ability to deliver. Senators prefer moving forward with appropriations bills while maintaining reconciliation as a fallback if negotiations collapse. "We either need to keep appropriations moving," said Sen. John Hoever of North Dakota, "or it's reconciliation 3.0."
Author James Rodriguez: "The Senate is betting the House fails, which tells you everything about how shaky Johnson's hand really is."
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