Just as Republicans sensed momentum on inflation, renewed fighting in the Middle East has pushed fuel costs higher and threatened to undermine what was shaping up as their strongest campaign message heading into the midterms.
Gas prices had been falling steadily after spiking to $4.50 in May. By earlier this month they had retreated to roughly $3.75 a gallon. But fresh combat has sent them climbing toward the $4 mark again, erasing progress that benefited the GOP.
The timing matters enormously. While voters rarely hold politicians accountable for every economic hardship, gas prices operate differently. Stanford political scientist Jon Krosnick, who has tracked three decades of pricing data, found that a 10-cent increase at the pump triggers a 0.6% drop in presidential approval ratings. That effect ripples to his entire party.
"It's hard to think about any other economic indicator where the number is literally posted on signs on the streets where everybody's traveling," Krosnick told Axios.
The political vulnerability cuts deeper for Republicans because Trump owns this conflict directly. When the U.S. first launched military operations on Feb. 28, prices sat at $2.98 a gallon. The subsequent spike has proven difficult to deflect onto distant geopolitical forces beyond presidential control.
Iran's decision to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed has amplified the threat. According to Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former International Monetary Fund official, Tehran recognizes its leverage. "If the strait stays closed, he could be in deep trouble in the election," Lachman said. "Iran knows it can cause real damage to the economy before the election."
Nearly eight in 10 Americans report that gas prices are straining their household budgets, according to a PBS/NPR/Marist poll conducted last month.
Meanwhile, the Republican-controlled Congress has little else to tout on the cost-of-living front. The chamber passed a housing affordability bill that drew Trump's criticism. Beyond that, GOP leaders have struggled to offer voters concrete relief, with the presidential focus shifting repeatedly toward unproven election fraud claims rather than the pocketbook issues dominating kitchen table conversations.
Trump has suggested the situation remains fluid. "I think oil is going to be a little bit of a yo-yo," he told Fox Business last week. "And when this is over oil is gonna drop like a rock."
With nearly four months until the election, conditions could still shift. If fighting subsides and prices fall sharply before voting day, Republicans might yet recover their advantage. Krosnick notes that short-term trends can matter as much as long-term patterns in determining voter mood.
But for now, the momentum has reversed. Gas prices and GOP electoral prospects appear tethered together, and neither is moving in the direction Republicans hoped.
Author James Rodriguez: "The political universe moves fast, but not fast enough to forget what you're paying at the pump."
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