House Speaker Mike Johnson is engineering what looks like a calculated defeat. Next week, before lawmakers scatter for August recess, the Louisiana Republican will push a continuing resolution through the House knowing it probably won't pass, but betting the failure sets up a bigger win come September.
The strategy hinges on a bold maneuver: if the short-term funding bill collapses in July, Johnson gains political cover to ram a spending package through reconciliation later. That would let him bundle a continuing resolution with the Pentagon's $67 billion munitions replenishment request, bypassing the need for Democratic support or Senate consensus.
Conservative lawmakers are already talking about it like it's a done deal. "The Dems know, 'OK, if we don't do the CR, we'll do it in a reconciliation bill," Republican Rep. Eric Burlison of Missouri told Axios.
The logic is straightforward: a failed vote in July becomes Johnson's excuse to move spending battles into reconciliation territory. He can then package everything together and force the Senate into a corner. Either accept the House reconciliation bill or shoulder the blame for a shutdown.
But Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune are operating on different frequencies. Thune has cautioned against rushing into a third reconciliation package, calling it a tougher sell in the upper chamber. "You've got to think long and hard about this. It's a much easier proposition in the House," Thune said Thursday.
House Republicans are increasingly anxious about defending a government shutdown during the final stretch before the midterm campaign kicks into high gear. That urgency is driving Johnson's push for an early vote. The GOP doesn't believe Democrats will provide the votes needed to pass a clean continuing resolution, so the display of good faith matters mainly as political theater for later arguments about exhausting normal channels.
That message is aimed at both Democrats and reluctant Senate Republicans: don't count on bipartisan cooperation for a funding extension.
Not everyone is on board. Some conservatives are threatening to block any spending bill that doesn't include the SAVE America Act, though Johnson hasn't committed to attaching it. Senate Republicans, meanwhile, want to give the regular appropriations process more room to operate and worry that talk of a July stopgap will undercut ongoing bipartisan negotiations over full-year spending.
Even House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries hasn't ruled out Democratic votes for a clean CR, but he warned against Johnson taking a "my-way-or-the-highway approach."
The entire scheme rests on Republicans actually pulling off a third reconciliation bill, something many lawmakers remain skeptical they can accomplish. Rep. David Valadao, a California Republican on the Appropriations Committee, has already called the whole idea bad policy.
If it works, though, Johnson gets to tell appropriators and frustrated conservatives that Republicans tried the normal route first. That cover story could be worth more than the actual vote itself.
Author James Rodriguez: "Johnson's betting his political capital on a failure that sets up a bigger gamble down the road, which is either brilliant or a recipe for chaos."
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