The Trump administration is pressing Iran to issue a public statement by Saturday acknowledging that the Strait of Hormuz remains open and pledging to halt attacks on commercial shipping. The ultimatum has been delivered through both direct channels and regional intermediaries, according to three U.S. officials who briefed reporters Friday.
The push comes after weeks of escalating tension over a memorandum of understanding signed between Washington and Tehran just three weeks ago. That agreement already appears on the brink of collapse following repeated Iranian fire on merchant vessels transiting one of the world's most critical shipping corridors. President Trump declared the ceasefire "over" earlier this week.
U.S. officials contend Iran breached the agreement by targeting commercial ships in the strait. The administration views the violations as a test case: if Iran cannot honor a straightforward commitment about allowing ships through open waters, how could it possibly be trusted with a far more complex nuclear accord currently being negotiated?
The Saturday deadline centers on a meeting between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi in Muscat. A U.S. official said the statement should explicitly state that all channels in the strait will remain open and toll-free, and ideally acknowledge Iranian responsibility for the shootings.
"We want them to publicly say that they will stop shooting at ships and explicitly, or at least implicitly, acknowledge that they screwed up," one official said. "We expect the Iranians to say that every channel in the strait will be open and that it will be toll-free."
A second official warned of serious repercussions if Tehran refuses to comply. "If it is not their position tomorrow, it is not gonna be a great day for them," the official stated.
The backdrop to this showdown involves Oman's recent decision to open a southern maritime corridor near its coastline for vessels navigating the strait. U.S. officials say the move was coordinated with Washington and Gulf allies to ensure shipping access, but Iran viewed it as undermining its negotiating leverage. According to American officials, radical factions within the Iranian regime subsequently opened fire on ships to reassert control, even as official negotiators were attempting to uphold the agreement.
Behind closed doors, a U.S. official claimed Iranian representatives reached out after two days of skirmishes early in the week and admitted fault. "They told us, 'We screwed up. We made a mistake. Let's keep talking,'" the official recounted.
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei disputed that characterization Friday, denying Tehran had requested talks with Washington. Instead, he said the Iranian delegation only agreed to Qatari mediation efforts requesting discussions. Baghaei reframed the situation, saying Iran had accepted responsibility for maritime services in the strait and was determined to uphold that commitment under the agreement.
U.S. officials have increasingly focused on internal Iranian power struggles as a complicating factor. They say elements within the regime want to reach a deal with Trump's team, but hardliners are working against implementation of the MOU. "There are elements within their system that want to reach a deal, but we can't make decisions for them. They need to get things under control," one official said.
The U.S. has already conducted two rounds of military strikes against Iran in response to the Hormuz attacks. Thursday saw a pause in hostilities as Trump signaled renewed interest in diplomacy. The administration has used that window to intensify pressure for the Saturday statement.
Complicating matters further is the parallel nuclear negotiations. According to U.S. officials, meaningful progress has been made during three weeks of direct and indirect talks with Iranian officials described as having decision-making authority. Yet the Strait of Hormuz crisis has cast doubt on Iran's willingness or capacity to honor a final nuclear agreement.
One official noted that Trump has allowed negotiators space and time to pursue a nuclear accord, "but not a lot of space and time." The same official indicated that contingency planning for alternatives is already underway should talks collapse.
The Saturday meeting in Muscat represents a critical juncture. Iranian compliance with the simple demand to publicly affirm shipping freedom in the strait will likely determine whether the already fragile diplomatic process survives.
Author James Rodriguez: "The administration is betting that a public Iranian backtrack on the Hormuz attacks will prove the regime can be reasoned with, but the internal factions pulling in opposite directions suggest this may be wishful thinking."
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