Donald Trump once again dominated a NATO summit with provocative theatrics, this time veering between threats to seize Greenland and declarations of support for Ukraine. The alliance emerged from the Ankara gathering intact, but the durability of the transatlantic partnership remains uncertain as long as an unpredictable president controls US military commitments.
Trump's headline-grabbing antics at the annual meeting overshadowed the substantive work NATO leaders were attempting. Beyond his Greenland ambitions and trade warnings toward Spain, he declared a ceasefire with Iran dead, labeled Iranian leaders "scum", and directed US warplanes to strike Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz. The spectacle consumed media coverage and drowned out NATO's coordinated messaging about unity and resolve.
The real question facing the alliance is how Vladimir Putin interprets the chaotic summit. Moscow, mired in an unwinnable war in Ukraine, may view Trump's wrecking ball approach as a sign that the US president would hesitate to defend NATO members under Article 5. If Russia perceives weakness in the American commitment, it could embolden hybrid attacks on Europe or territorial grabs in the Baltics, testing whether NATO functions as a credible deterrent or merely a "paper tiger."
NATO's formal accomplishments in Ankara were genuinely significant. The alliance secured a new commitment to spend 5% of GDP on defense and related infrastructure by 2035. Member nations announced tens of billions in coordinated equipment purchases and joint projects, including air-to-air refueling tankers, long-range precision missiles, and air-defense systems. European allies and Canada demonstrated willingness to strengthen their defenses even as the US presence in Europe potentially shrinks.
Yet a critical ambiguity remains. The alliance pledged to eliminate defense trade barriers among members, but it was unclear whether this language targets European "buy European" procurement preferences or pushes the US to loosen technology transfer restrictions on American weapons systems. Allies still lack full control over the military equipment they purchase from Washington.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth added a troubling note, announcing a six-month Pentagon review of US force levels in Europe. The implicit threat was that Washington could withdraw troops from allies deemed to have "failed," though the criteria for such judgments remain murky. Whether failure means insufficient defense spending or inadequate support for US military operations elsewhere was left unspecified.
The most tangible shift from last year's NATO summit involved Ukraine. Just 16 months after Trump criticized Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, the alliance formally declared that "Ukraine contributes to transatlantic security" and pledged "unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity." NATO even backed a promise allowing Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missile interceptors under license.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who has cultivated a reputation for managing Trump, deserves credit for shifting the president's position on Kyiv. The UK, France, and Germany also pressed consistently for support of Ukraine and resisted US pressure to impose a disadvantageous ceasefire that would reward Putin with territorial gains.
The alliance limps forward, technically strengthened but perpetually vulnerable. With a US president who treats transatlantic diplomacy as a blood sport, NATO members cannot predict which confrontation will come next or whether it will prove fatal to the 77-year-old partnership. The fact that allies could not agree on when or where to hold their next summit speaks volumes about the strain Trump places on the relationship.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan gifted each NATO leader a customized, engraved revolver loaded with live ammunition. The metaphor was unsubtle: the alliance is engaged in a high-stakes game of Russian roulette, where the outcome depends entirely on which chamber the next round occupies.
Author James Rodriguez: "Trump's unpredictability is NATO's greatest liability, and no communique can mask the fact that Putin is watching to see if the American commitment is real or theater."
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