The world is bracing for one of the most powerful El Niño events on record, with forecasters warning the phenomenon will likely persist well into next year and amplify extreme weather across the globe.
The National Weather Service released an updated assessment Thursday showing an 81% probability that a very strong El Niño will develop before year's end, ranking among the largest such events since 1950. More striking is the near-certainty, at 97%, that conditions will hold through spring 2027.
"The odds and the magnitudes just keep rising," said climate scientist Daniel Swain, noting that current conditions have already shattered historical benchmarks for this time of year. "El Niño so far, for the calendar date, is as strong or stronger than we've ever seen before, and that is a trajectory that is expected to continue."
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific warm significantly, disrupting jet streams and precipitation patterns worldwide. A super El Niño, where temperatures climb at least 2 degrees Celsius above average, carries the potential to reshape weather systems across entire continents and compound warming already driven by climate change.
The 2015 super El Niño offers a window into what lies ahead. That event triggered devastating drought in Ethiopia, water shortages in Puerto Rico, and fueled a brutally active hurricane season in the central Pacific. Historically, such events spawn dry, hot conditions across Australia, southern and central Africa, India, and parts of South America including the Amazon. Conversely, heavy rains can deluge the southern United States, portions of the Middle East, and south-central Asia.
The timing could not be worse. Europe just recorded its hottest June on file, with multiple nations setting all-time temperature records. France, the Netherlands, and Belgium documented over 3,700 excess deaths during the heat surge. In the United States, twenty states topped 100 degrees Fahrenheit during a heat dome that coincided with Fourth of July celebrations, generating dozens of deaths and millions of emergency room visits.
The immediate outlook offers little relief. A massive heat dome is forecast to expand across the western United States and into the central plains this week, with interior western regions potentially shattering heat records. Swain cautioned that temperatures in several states could push past 100 degrees by Sunday and Monday.
The relentless heat is already fueling catastrophic fire activity. Firefighters battled 38 large wildfires across the country as of Thursday, with more than 3.4 million acres already burned in 2026. Drought-stricken regions face escalating fire danger in coming days.
Dr. Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, underscored the stakes in a statement following Europe's record month. "June 2026 underscored how profoundly the climate is changing," she said. "The result is increasingly intense heatwaves, a persistently warm ocean, and growing risks for people, ecosystems and infrastructure."
Author James Rodriguez: "A super El Niño layered on top of what's already a fevered planet is not a forecast, it's a warning that global systems are moving into uncharted territory."
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