Republicans are stocking up firepower for Maine's Senate race, regardless of who ends up as the Democratic nominee. The GOP super PAC backing Sen. Susan Collins is preparing an $8 million advertising campaign to define a new Democratic challenger before that challenger can define themselves.
Pine Tree Results, the super PAC, raised $10.5 million in the first half of the year and has $8 million in cash sitting idle after pulling its negative ads against progressive nominee Graham Platner this week. The strategy is deliberate: three weeks for Republicans to frame a replacement nominee while Democrats scramble to rally around someone new.
Platner said Monday he is taking time to "reflect" on his next steps, but he remains officially on the ballot. That technical status matters because he is trying to use whatever leverage he retains to influence who succeeds him as the Democratic nominee, according to people with knowledge of internal campaign discussions.
"Graham still has to make the decision to leave the ballot," one person familiar with campaign deliberations said Tuesday. "Folks are pretending that he has. And he has not."
Platner's adviser, Morris Katz, has discussed with him the need to suspend the campaign and planned to meet with Platner in Maine on Tuesday to make the case. Yet conflicting accounts have muddied the situation. The New York Post reported Tuesday that a source claimed Katz was still recommending Platner stay in the race, prompting Katz to deny the story on social media, saying no one involved in deliberations was speaking to the outlet.
What Platner wants in a successor is clear: not a "corporate" Democrat. He has told his team he built a movement and drew a record-breaking number of votes, and his influence over the replacement process appears to be his leverage in a race where his own candidacy has collapsed.
The paralysis is rippling across Democratic strategy nationwide. Senate Majority PAC, the major Democratic super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, has paused spending in Maine to pressure Platner to exit. If he remains on the ballot, the $33 million reserved for Maine would likely be redirected to emerging pickup opportunities in Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska.
That shift would benefit candidates like former Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio and former Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska. Progressive resources are also expected to flow toward Abdul El-Sayed's Michigan Senate campaign, where he is battling Rep. Haley Stevens for the Democratic nomination.
Notably, one of Pine Tree Results' donors is Jon Gray, president of Blackstone and a longtime Democratic donor who contributed $250,000 to the pro-Collins super PAC before sexual assault allegations against Platner became public.
Platner's refusal to formally exit has exposed a fault line between the Democratic Party establishment and its progressive wing, undermining hopes that the two camps could present a unified front heading into the general election.
Author James Rodriguez: "The GOP has basically bought a three-week head start to define Maine's race on their own terms, and Platner's ego-driven stalling is handing it to them on a silver platter."
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