A fundamental realignment is occurring in how America views Israel, driven by Gaza's devastation and a costly military adventure that has exposed deep fractures in what was once one of Washington's most unquestioned relationships.
The shift cuts across party lines. A Pew survey in April found 60% of American adults hold negative views of Israel, up 7 percentage points in a year and 20 points since 2022. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 80% now view Israel unfavorably. Even within the Republican party, 57% of voters under 50 oppose the country.
For decades, questioning Israel in Washington was treated as heresy. When Human Rights Watch released a 2021 report on Israeli apartheid in occupied Palestinian territory, it drew international acclaim but landed in the US capital as a pariah document. President Joe Biden exemplified this reflexive deference even as Israeli forces leveled neighborhoods. He halted shipments of 2,000-pound bombs but allowed billions in other military aid to flow freely, later attempting to address starvation through an ineffective floating pier operation rather than conditioning assistance on policy change.
The political ground has shifted beneath establishment feet. In New York City's recent Democratic primary, held in America's largest Jewish population center outside Israel, supporting the pro-Israel lobby group AIPAC became a political liability. Winning candidates openly acknowledged Israel's genocide and apartheid practices.
Remarkably, Donald Trump demonstrated more willingness than Biden to challenge Netanyahu. After initially endorsing Gaza's ethnic cleansing, Trump eventually demanded a ceasefire, which Netanyahu accepted. But the relationship soured over an Iran conflict Netanyahu orchestrated.
Netanyahu convinced Trump to launch a war premised on unrealistic regime change fantasies and no contingency planning. The result left Trump holding a diplomatic disaster: an Iranian government strengthened by surviving the assault with most military capabilities intact and no nuclear program damage, newly emboldened in the Strait of Hormuz, and capable of derailing Trump's broader Gulf business agenda. Netanyahu's continued attacks on Lebanon repeatedly sabotaged Trump's negotiating efforts with Tehran.
The contradiction became impossible to ignore. Trump seeks a ceasefire and Gulf deals; Netanyahu wants perpetual war with Iran. Trump called Netanyahu "fucking crazy" for jeopardizing an Iranian accord through Lebanon strikes. Vice President JD Vance criticized Israeli officials for attacking Trump's Iran agreement when Washington remains Israel's only major ally.
Within the Republican party, Trump faces pressure from his isolationist base, which opposed the Iran war from the start, and traditional hawks demanding a harder line despite Trump's weakened negotiating position.
The long-term consequences could prove severe for Israel. An unconditional US commitment has enabled decision-makers to operate with near-total impunity, relying on American military and diplomatic cover. This has left Israel facing entrenched opponents: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran pursuing nuclear weapons after Trump abandoned the Obama-era nuclear deal Netanyahu opposed.
History offers Israel alternative paths. Peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan neutralized existential threats. The Abraham Accords neutralized other Arab governments. Yet Netanyahu's government refuses to recognize Palestinian self-determination, framing all Palestinian resistance as inherent terrorism rather than reactions to occupation.
Even within Israeli politics, the pressure mounts. Netanyahu faces corruption charges and widespread criticism over intelligence failures preceding the October 2023 Hamas attack. He remains unpopular despite his electoral dominance.
Netanyahu openly discusses weaning Israel from American military aid, but proposes a decade-long transition. Industry observers expect such assistance may not survive the next Democratic administration.
A leadership change alone will not resolve Israel's isolation if policies remain unchanged. Real transformation might require extraordinary steps: surrendering Netanyahu to the International Criminal Court, as Serbia did with Slobodan Milosevic in 2001 to lift sanctions. Such accountability seems distant while even Israeli opposition figures lean hawkish on security matters.
The historical record suggests unconditional support paradoxically weakens Israel's long-term security. Endless occupation breeds endless conflict. The lesson from South Africa's negotiated apartheid end, despite white population fears, demonstrates that acknowledging Palestinian humanity and statehood rights may offer the path forward that endless military dominance cannot.
Author James Rodriguez: "When the most isolationist Republican president in generations is more dovish on Israel than the Democratic establishment, something fundamental in American politics has cracked."
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