Donald Trump's endorsement power faces another referendum this weekend as Louisiana Republicans choose between two candidates vying for a U.S. Senate seat. The former president has already shown his ability to reshape the state's Republican primary, but Saturday's runoff offers no guarantee that his backing will determine the outcome.
Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow finished first in May's primary with 45 percent of the vote, enough to advance to a runoff against state Treasurer John Fleming, who captured 28 percent. The top finisher was supposed to be a lock for the general election seat, but runoff contests are notoriously unpredictable, especially when voter turnout drops sharply.
Fleming believes low turnout could work in his favor. As voters take a second look at the candidates after the initial primary focused heavily on removing incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy, Fleming argues he presents a more authentic conservative choice. "The dynamic leading up to the primary was: No matter what you said, everybody was focused and obsessed really with stopping Cassidy," Fleming told NBC News. "But the dynamic now is completely different. People are actually looking at the candidates, and what they see is I'm far more conservative in my practice, in my votes, in everything that I do."
Fleming, a former congressman who helped found the House Freedom Caucus and served in the Trump administration as deputy chief of staff, has hammered Letlow over her past support for diversity and equity initiatives and foreign aid spending. Letlow has said she reconsidered her position on such policies.
Trump amplified his endorsement Thursday during a tele-rally with Letlow, calling her a "fearless champion" and praising her willingness to back his proposed overhaul of election laws. "Perhaps most importantly, she'll support the SAVE America Act to protect our sacred American elections," Trump said.
Letlow responded by claiming she stands alone in the race on supporting filibuster reform to pass Trump's legislation. Fleming countered that he too would eliminate the filibuster if necessary but expressed concerns about the precedent it would set for Democratic-controlled Congresses in the future.
The race has grown increasingly personal. Higgins, a fellow House Republican, endorsed Letlow after Fleming's campaign shared an AI-generated video featuring a deepfake of Letlow discussing her late husband's death. Letlow's first election to Congress came through a 2021 special election following her husband's death from Covid.
GOP strategists acknowledge that while Letlow enters the runoff as the favorite, an upset remains possible. Lionel Rainey III, a Louisiana Republican strategist unconnected to the race, said he expects Letlow to win but warned of unknowns. "I think it's going to be much, much closer than anybody expects and I would not be shocked if Fleming somehow edged this thing out," Rainey said.
James Hartman, another GOP strategist, credited Trump's endorsement with shielding Letlow from conservative criticism. "The fact that he endorsed her right out of the gate inoculated her against any sort of claim that she's liberal because folks tend to still perceive President Trump as being conservative," Hartman said.
Fleming claimed he spoke with Trump by phone after the endorsement and that the former president called him "fantastic," but Trump made no mention of Fleming during the Thursday rally, instead concentrating his praise entirely on Letlow.
Letlow has also benefited from support by allied super PACs and endorsements from House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Rep. Clay Higgins, bolstering her standing beyond Trump's backing alone.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump's test here is whether his megaphone still moves voters when they're paying actual attention to the candidates rather than simply reacting against an incumbent he disliked."
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