The coalition that twice delivered Donald Trump to the White House is fracturing. White working-class voters who powered his 2016 and 2024 victories are now souring on him at an alarming rate, and the timing could prove catastrophic for Republicans heading into the midterms.
Trump won 66% of white voters without a college degree in 2024, but a CBS News poll shows his support among that group has cratered. Just 54% of these voters disapprove of his performance now, up sharply from 32% in February 2025. The shift is dramatic and unmistakable.
The anger centers on a simple calculation: Trump promised the moon to blue-collar America, and they see nothing in return. He vowed to slash prices on day one. Instead, inflation sits at 4.2%, the highest in three years. He pledged to bring back manufacturing jobs. Factory employment has actually declined by 68,000 since he took office. He swore he would avoid new foreign conflicts. Then he launched a war against Iran, which sent gasoline and grocery prices soaring.
Peggy Liff, a 57-year-old Ohio welder who voted for Trump three times, captures the betrayal. "He's concentrating on other things, like overseas, Iran," she told the Washington Post. "He says he's doing it for us, but I don't see where that's happening."
The economic pain is real and measurable. Working families confronted tariffs that raised prices on furniture, coffee, and fresh fruit. They watched as Trump backed more than $1 trillion in tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy while championing cuts to Medicaid and food assistance exceeding $1 trillion. Meanwhile, wage gains for average workers have been wiped out by surging energy costs, even as billionaires like Elon Musk reach historic wealth milestones.
The disconnect has widened. When inflation spiked, Trump told reporters: "I love the inflation." A month earlier, he said: "I don't think about Americans' financial situation." Such remarks hand Democrats powerful ammunition for campaign ads.
The polling paints a grim picture for Republicans. Only 33% of white blue-collar voters approve of Trump's handling of the economy. Just 25% approve of his inflation management. A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 44% of non-college-educated white voters now say they're more likely to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate, up from 30% right before the 2018 midterms.
Republican pollster John McLaughlin, a longtime Trump operative, warned of the danger: "It's working-class voters who are not happy with the Republican party, and they may not come out and vote." Low turnout among Trump's base could prove decisive in Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and other battlegrounds with large working-class populations.
The disaffection extends beyond white workers. Many working-class African Americans, Hispanics, and Asian Americans are equally frustrated by the war with Iran, soaring grocery prices, and policies that have widened the gap between billionaires and ordinary Americans.
Democrats sense opportunity but must move beyond simply attacking Trump. The moment calls for concrete pro-worker proposals: new taxes on billionaires to fund affordable childcare, excess profits taxes on oil companies to subsidize gas prices, and down-payment assistance for first-time homebuyers facing sky-high housing costs. A growing segment of the Democratic caucus understands this necessity, but the party needs to move faster and speak louder.
Trump built his political career on the promise that he would fight for forgotten Americans. The working-class voters who believed him now feel forgotten by him. That reversal could reshape the midterm map.
Author James Rodriguez: "When a politician's base stops showing up because he delivered nothing but empty rhetoric and foreign wars, that's the definition of a political earthquake."
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