Former President Barack Obama said the United States emerged from its 15-week conflict with Iran in a weaker position than before hostilities began in February, despite expressing relief at a newly signed ceasefire agreement.
In an NBC News interview that aired Friday, Obama laid out the military and financial toll bluntly. "We've now fought a war, spent billions and billions of dollars, put enormous strain on our military. A lot of people have died. And it feels like we're back where we were before we started the war, except maybe a little bit worse off," he said.
The remarks came after President Donald Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran at the Palace of Versailles on Wednesday night. Obama called the ceasefire welcome but cautioned he remained hopeful it would hold.
Obama directed particular criticism at the Trump administration's 2018 decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the nuclear agreement his administration had negotiated in 2015. Under that deal, Iran agreed to forgo nuclear weapons development in exchange for sanctions relief. When Trump abandoned the pact, Obama noted, Iran responded by accelerating its nuclear capacity.
"Iran had agreed not to develop nuclear weapons," Obama said. "Trump pulled out of it, which caused Iran to develop more nuclear capacity."
Vice President JD Vance, who is leading a new diplomatic push focused on the nuclear issue, offered a starkly different assessment. He declared the deal "already bearing fruit" for Americans, citing falling gas prices and claimed destruction of Iran's nuclear and conventional military capabilities.
"The president believes in this deal, he is going to see it to completion, and if the Iranians don't comply, we still have every single tool and point of leverage that we have today," Vance said Thursday at the White House.
Vance delayed a planned trip to Switzerland to lead the next round of talks with Tehran. Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, signaled the negotiations would be contentious, insisting future discussions must respect what he called Iran's "red lines." He referenced previous statements about conditions including a ceasefire in Lebanon, and warned that Iran would retaliate if the United States overreached in its demands.
The rosy outlook on energy markets may face headwinds. While some expect oil prices to fall as global supplies normalize, energy executives warn of a different risk. Neil Chapman, a senior vice president at Exxon, told Wall Street Journal reporters at a New York conference that oil prices could spike to $150 or $160 per barrel if strategic reserves fall to critical levels during restocking efforts following the conflict's disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Obama's comments were made during an interview ahead of the opening of his presidential center in Chicago Friday. The former president reflected more broadly on the state of the nation, saying Americans faced unprecedented polarization and erosion of democratic norms, though he stressed the importance of holding elected officials accountable moving forward.
Author James Rodriguez: "Obama's blunt assessment that the country is worse off after a war nobody wanted sets an uncomfortable baseline for judging whether Trump's ceasefire actually delivers on its promises."
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