The Supreme Court is poised to deliver a complicated verdict on Donald Trump's agenda in the coming weeks, with major decisions looming on birthright citizenship, federal agency independence, and immigration enforcement. The conservative-dominated bench still has 20 cases to resolve before the term concludes at the end of June, and the next slate of rulings arrives Thursday.
Trump has already tasted defeat this year. In February, the justices blocked his sweeping tariffs on imports from around the world, a loss that prompted the president to publicly criticize the justices who sided against him, including two he appointed to the bench.
The administration faces a steep climb on birthright citizenship, its marquee constitutional challenge. Based on oral arguments held in April, the court appears likely to reject Trump's plan to reinterpret the 14th Amendment's citizenship guarantee in a way that would exclude children born to undocumented or temporary resident parents. Trump, who made history by attending the oral argument as the first sitting president to do so, has grown increasingly vocal about his frustration with the court's apparent direction on the issue. "The United States States of America cannot live with the shackles of Birthright Citizenship. It is not economically, or otherwise, sustainable, and no other Country in the World, of consequence, does it!" he posted on Truth Social last week.
The court also appears ready to rule against Trump on his effort to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Trump sought to oust Cook based on mortgage fraud allegations she denies. The court already blocked his attempt to remove her immediately last fall, signaling skepticism of the administration's position. Cook's case has become a flashpoint in Trump's broader effort to assert greater presidential control over the traditionally independent Federal Reserve, even as he recently appointed Kevin Warsh as the new board chairman.
But Trump stands to score a significant win on presidential removal power in a separate case. The justices appear ready to endorse his authority to fire members of independent agencies without needing to provide a reason. That case centers on the ouster of Federal Trade Commission member Rebecca Kelly Slaughter. The Supreme Court allowed that firing to proceed in September and has shown receptiveness to Trump's removal of other officials across the government.
The administration is also awaiting decisions on whether it can strip Temporary Protected Status from Haitian and Syrian immigrants as part of its hardline immigration posture. A ruling in those linked cases could allow the government to quickly revoke protections for other vulnerable populations as well. Separately, the justices will rule on the government's power to summarily turn away asylum seekers at the border.
Robert Luther III, a George Mason University law professor who served in the Trump White House during the first term, said the administration's string of losses reflects the audacity of its legal arguments. "While ultimately there may be a few losses, the court continues to move in a pro-executive direction, a vision that is more consistent with President Trump's view of the executive branch," Luther said, characterizing the administration's positions as an "extremely robust vision" of presidential power.
Liberal advocates worry that a potential Trump loss on birthright citizenship will be misread as evidence the Supreme Court is moderating its conservative trajectory. Elizabeth Wydra, president of the Constitutional Accountability Center, said the issue pales in comparison to the court's recent decisions that gutted the Voting Rights Act and allowed Republican-led states to redraw districts that eliminated majority-Black congressional seats. "The Supreme Court simply not getting on the train to crazy town doesn't negate the fact they have turned back the clock on American progress toward multiracial democracy," Wydra said.
The term also includes high-profile cases unrelated to Trump, including two cases on whether states can ban transgender girls and women from competing in girls' sports, along with major rulings expected on election law and gun rights.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump's ability to reshape the government through removal power could matter far more than his birthright citizenship loss, and the court seems determined to hand him that prize."
Comments