The agreement set to be formally signed Friday in Geneva does not end the conflict between the US and Iran. It is, at its core, a 60-day extension of a ceasefire reached in April, with the primary achievement being the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran's closure at the start of hostilities disrupted global energy markets.
When Trump launched military strikes against Iran in late February, his stated objectives were sweeping: topple the Islamic regime, destroy its military and nuclear program, and spark a popular uprising. Within days, he demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender." On Sunday, he announced a deal that allows oil tankers to pass through a strategic waterway again.
Trump hailed the agreement as a solution to a problem of his own making. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than one-fifth of global oil supply flows daily, had spiked energy prices and rattled the world economy. "Ships of the World, start your engines," Trump posted on social media. "Let the oil flow!"
But the reality reflects Iran's unexpected resilience. Despite weeks of intense bombardment by two of the world's most formidable militaries, the Iranian regime survived and emerged with newfound leverage. Iran weaponized its geography, transforming control of the strait into an economic tool that threatened not just oil supplies but also fertilizer and agricultural products critical to global food security. While Iran cannot match US military power in direct combat, it discovered it could hold the world economy hostage.
The latest accord defers nearly every substantive question to future diplomacy. Negotiations are supposed to conclude within 60 days of the June 19 signing, though observers expect talks to stretch for months or years. In practical terms, Trump and Iran have purchased breathing room for diplomacy to solve what military force could not.
The unresolved issues mirror those discussed just 48 hours before Trump launched his war, when US and Iranian negotiators met in Geneva under Omani mediation. That earlier round included Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. The UK's national security adviser, Jonathan Powell, also attended. Sources indicated Powell found Iran's willingness to curtail its nuclear program surprising enough to push for continued talks and against immediate war.
Iran is unlikely to offer the same nuclear concessions this time. The regime emerged emboldened from the conflict. Early US-Israeli airstrikes killed more than 30 senior Iranian military and political officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rather than collapse as Trump anticipated, Iranian leaders rallied around the government and installed Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, as the new supreme leader. The younger Khamenei is backed by hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers, whose influence over Iran's economy and politics has only expanded.
The thorniest question concerns the strait itself. Trump demands it remain permanently toll-free, yet the new agreement only suspends Iranian tolls for 60 days. Iran's negotiators are already discussing permanent fees for "navigation and security" services, revenues they claim only Iran and Oman have the right to collect. Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran's chief negotiator, stated flatly: "This process is in place now and will remain in place in any future agreement."
Allowing Iran to impose charges on one of the world's most critical shipping lanes would deal a political blow to Trump, but his team may lack leverage to restore the pre-war status quo. The president's failed regime-change war strengthened Iran's negotiating position, and its leaders will demand a higher price for future concessions.
Other major sticking points loom unresolved. Iran maintains over 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity, dangerously close to the 90% needed for weapons-grade material. Iranian officials will likely demand significant sanctions relief in exchange for diluting existing stockpiles and accepting limits on future enrichment. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who spent months urging Trump toward regime change, insists any deal must also constrain Iran's ballistic missile development and its support for regional proxy forces including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
These unresolved questions carry enough weight to derail negotiations entirely. For now, Trump has secured at least two months of peace. The irony is stark: the president who entered office seeking to topple Iran's government now appears eager to strike a grand bargain with the regime he could not overthrow.
Author James Rodriguez: "Trump gambled on regime change and lost, handing Iran a stronger hand at the negotiating table than it had before a single bomb fell."
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