President Donald Trump arrives in France on Monday for a two-day Group of Seven summit that will pit him directly against European allies furious over his February military action against Iran and increasingly worried he will broker a Ukraine peace deal that surrenders territory to Russia.
The meetings in the Evian-les-Bains resort will test Trump's relationship with a coalition he has already needled. After the Iran attack, he mocked British Prime Minister Keir Starmer as no Winston Churchill. French President Emmanuel Macron, hosting the summit, publicly denounced the strike as outside international law.
Trump has complained that Europe has not done enough to support his Iran war aims. The Europeans counter that he never consulted them beforehand on a conflict they believe was avoidable. The frustration runs both ways: U.S. officials say Europe is not pulling its weight in the Middle East, while European leaders argue Washington abandoned them to manage the Ukraine crisis alone.
The clash over Ukraine could be sharper. On Tuesday, Trump will sit down with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as the two haggle over how to end the war. Last year, Trump told Zelenskyy in an Oval Office confrontation that he "doesn't have the cards," pushing him toward a quick ceasefire.
That calculation has shifted dramatically. Ukraine's military has clawed back ground using sophisticated drone technology that has stymied Russian forces. Zelenskyy's position has strengthened considerably. William Taylor, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine now at the Atlantic Council, notes that Russia appears "on its back foot."
Analysts and some Republican lawmakers believe Ukraine's battlefield gains give Trump more leverage to pressure Putin into withdrawing troops and ending the conflict. Whether Trump will deploy that leverage remains uncertain. His approach has been to end the war quickly, period, raising European fears he will let Russia keep conquered territory that belongs to Ukraine.
Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump confidant, told NBC News he hopes the president will "reset and re-engage in Ukraine-Russia." Graham added: "I'm hoping he'll understand that Ukraine is more than holding their own and now is the time put pressure on Putin to get this thing over with."
Trump's mood could shape the summit's tone. He is arriving fresh from a UFC cage fight he staged on the White House grounds for his 80th birthday, an event he anticipated eagerly. Macron postponed the summit by a day to accommodate the fight. Trump also claimed Sunday that he has sealed a breakthrough Iran deal that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane without tolls, restoring the status quo before the war.
History suggests the company of Western leaders has sometimes soured Trump. At a 2018 G7 meeting during his first term, he refused to sign the joint statement and attacked the host, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as "very dishonest and weak." The following year he questioned whether the G7 was worth attending at all.
Macron is working to prevent a repeat. Beyond the summit schedule itself, he has invited Trump to a private dinner at the Palace of Versailles when the meetings end, an intimate gesture designed to soothe tensions. Ned Price, a former State Department spokesman under Joe Biden, called the invitation strategic: "President Macron extended this private invitation for him to go to Versailles for this extravagant dinner, knowing that you know President Trump is one to enjoy the pomp and circumstance for an invitation that doesn't sound like it's been extended" to other leaders.
The mutual suspicion runs deep. Trump opened his second term by musing about making Canada a 51st state and threatening to seize Greenland, a Danish territory. Europe's democracies, alarmed at Russian aggression, want Putin defeated and Ukraine's borders restored. Macron's team has made clear France will push for sustained Ukrainian support and a firm stance against territorial concessions.
Trump's position is simpler: end the war. The European Union's fear is that his appetite for a quick resolution will lead him to accept Russian territorial gains.
The stakes were underscored on the eve of the summit when both Putin and Zelenskyy phoned Trump separately to mark his birthday. Putin's call lasted nearly an hour, with Moscow emphasizing the Russian president's "respect for Donald Trump's fighting qualities" and flattery of his ability to overcome obstacles. Zelenskyy stressed Ukraine's strengthened battlefield position and dynamics.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump's going to walk into Evian with massive leverage over Putin and instead may squander it trying to claim a deal. Europe sees it coming and they are right to worry."
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