A new national poll shows Democrats maintaining a narrow but meaningful advantage heading into this year's midterm elections, even as President Donald Trump's approval rating has sunk to its lowest point since he took office for a second term.
According to an NBC News survey, 49% of registered voters prefer Democrats to control Congress, compared to 44% who favor Republican control, with 7% unsure. That five-point gap mirrors the margin NBC recorded in March and marks a consistent Democratic position, though it falls short of the larger leads the party enjoyed in previous midterm cycles. In June 2018, Democrats held a 10-point advantage on the generic ballot before capturing 40 House seats.
The breakdown reveals stark geographic and demographic divides. Independents break toward Democrats by 12 points, and majorities of Black voters, Latino voters, voters under 50, and college-educated voters prefer Democratic control. Republicans hold advantages among men, white voters, and those without degrees.
Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey alongside Democratic counterpart Jeff Horwitt, offered a measured assessment. "These are rocky numbers for Republicans, but they are not catastrophic," McInturff said. Democrats need just three additional House seats to claim the majority, a far lower bar than the four Senate seats required to secure that chamber, especially given that they would need to flip multiple states Trump won decisively in 2024.
Trump's standing with voters has deteriorated sharply. His approval rating among registered voters dropped to 42%, the lowest of his second term and matching the depths of July 2020 during the pandemic. Among all adults, it sits at 39%. Two-thirds of independents now disapprove of his job performance, a particular weakness for a president attempting to rally his party for the midterms.
More troubling for Republicans, some groups that shifted toward Trump in 2024 have soured on him in office. Among Latino voters, 64% disapprove versus 34% who approve. Young voters ages 18 to 29 disapprove by an even wider margin, 77% to 21%.
Support within the GOP base remains relatively solid, though it has eroded. Eighty-two percent of Republicans approve of Trump's job performance, and 58% strongly approve. That represents a decline from March, when 88% approved and 63% strongly approved.
Horwitt, the Democratic pollster, highlighted cracks in Republican enthusiasm. While 95% of Kamala Harris voters say they prefer Democratic Congress control, only 90% of Trump voters prefer Republican control, a gap he suggested indicates Democratic strength despite redistricting challenges that have narrowed the competitive landscape.
Beyond the congressional battle, voters expressed broader pessimism about the nation's trajectory. A majority, 56%, believe America's best years are behind it, compared to 40% who see the nation's future as brighter. This marks the fourth consecutive time a majority of voters gave that response.
The pessimism extends to economic mobility. Nearly 80% of voters said the American Dream is harder to achieve now than a generation ago, while just 5% believe it has become easier.
Trust in institutions has also deteriorated. Half of all voters expressed very little or no confidence in the federal government. Confidence in Congress was even lower, with 58% expressing very little or no confidence, compared to just 11% expressing a great deal or quite a bit of confidence.
The NBC News poll surveyed 2,400 registered voters from May 29 to June 7 using both telephone and text-based online surveys. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points. The poll was sponsored by More Perfect, a nonpartisan nonprofit focused on advancing democracy.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump's sliding approval is poison for House Republicans who need to run on something other than nostalgia, and these numbers suggest they're running out of time to stop the bleeding."
Comments