Donald Trump abruptly turned on Iran on Friday, calling them "very dishonorable people to deal with" and demanding they "get their act together, and FAST," just hours after suggesting a preliminary peace agreement could be signed within days.
The sudden shift came as both sides unleashed competing claims about the state of negotiations, with Iranian state media insisting a draft deal existed while Trump dismissed the reports as fabrications. A senior US official, meanwhile, estimated an "80 to 85%" chance of a signed agreement within days, suggesting the fracturing was more about internal disagreements than a fundamental breakdown.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif added to the confusion by claiming on social media that a final text had been agreed, providing no supporting details. Neither Washington nor Tehran confirmed this assertion.
The swings reflected deeper fissures over core issues. Iran's state news agency said "the broad outlines" of a deal were being finalized but then stated Iran would not surrender control of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas passes. The US has made reopening the waterway a centerpiece of any agreement and said it would lift its blockade on Iranian ports as part of the terms.
Documents leaked by Iranian media painted a radically different picture than US statements. Iran's Mehr news agency cited what it called a draft deal promising release of 24 billion dollars in frozen Iranian assets, suspension of sanctions on oil sales, US reparations, and a 60-day negotiating window on nuclear issues. US officials countered that the actual agreement required Iran to destroy its nuclear material, dismantle its program, forfeit the frozen money unless conditions were met, and cease backing militant movements.
Trump's threats have been as volatile as his promises. On Thursday he vowed to seize Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal and launch new attacks, then pivoted to claiming a diplomatic breakthrough had been "approved" by Iran's highest leadership. The whiplash reflected political pressure at home, with fuel prices rising and his approval ratings sinking ahead of November's midterm elections.
Iran faces its own mounting pressures. President Masoud Pezeshkian told the nation this week that "governing the country is not an easy task under the current circumstances" given sanctions, blocked trade routes, inflation, and internal unrest. Oil exports remain severely restricted.
A major sticking point involves Lebanon, where Israel launched an offensive against Hezbollah and now occupies swathes of the south. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted to Trump that any deal must curb Iran's missile production and support for "terrorist proxies" including Hezbollah, but these issues are not formally part of current negotiations, according to Middle East diplomats and analysts. Hezbollah politicians have demanded Lebanon be included in any settlement.
Escalations on the ground underscored the fragility. US forces shot down two Iranian attack drones on Thursday after Tehran attempted strikes on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's military subsequently stopped a tanker from transiting the waterway, with explosions reported early Friday. These incidents occurred despite a ceasefire that officially took effect in April, though it has been marked by repeated violations and threats by all sides.
A US official said the agreement would include opening the strait and lifting the blockade on Iranian ports as agreed terms. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi urged media outlets to stop speculating about deal contents until finalization, saying Tehran would share all details through its "responsible and transparent approach." Yet Tehran simultaneously released supposed draft language that contradicted American positions, suggesting either negotiators are deeply fragmented or the posturing masks tactical positioning ahead of a final push.
Author James Rodriguez: "This deal has all the hallmarks of a Trump negotiation: big promises, sudden reversals, and enough daylight between the parties' public statements to drive a tanker through. Whether it collapses or somehow gets signed, the chaos on display should worry anyone counting on stability in the region."
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