Graham Platner is poised to win Maine's Democratic Senate primary today, but the real story isn't whether he'll secure the nomination. It's how badly he loses ground.
Platner enters the race trailing a storm of scandals. The Wall Street Journal broke a story about sexually explicit text messages early in his marriage. Days later, the New York Times published accounts from three ex-girlfriends describing his behavior as "toxic" and "unsettling." The damage has split the party leadership, with some openly questioning whether he can beat Republican Senator Susan Collins in November.
On the ballot alongside Platner are Governor Janet Mills and David Costello, who ran against independent Senator Angus King in 2024. Mills suspended her campaign this spring when Platner had pulled far ahead in polling, but she's kept her name on the ballot and has been reminding voters they can still choose her. Left-wing activist Andrea LaFlamme is also running as a write-in candidate.
The timing of these revelations could soften their impact on tonight's results. Early voting began May 11, more than two weeks before the Wall Street Journal story broke. By the time the Times published its article on Friday, over 30,000 Maine Democrats had already voted. Since early voting typically accounts for about 25% of primary turnout, Platner likely locked in a substantial share of votes when his path to the nomination looked certain.
Exit data comparing early voters to those who cast ballots today will offer crucial clues about how much the controversies shifted opinion in his party. A University of New Hampshire survey taken in mid-May, before the recent firestorm, showed Platner with 76% support among likely Democratic primary voters. That's the benchmark to watch. If he lands at or above that threshold tonight, he can argue the scandals had minimal effect. A result well below it signals he has serious problems ahead.
The stakes don't end tonight. Maine law allows a nominated candidate to withdraw anytime before July 14, opening the door for party leaders to swap him out for another nominee if his viability collapses. A convincing victory would make such a move politically impossible. A weak showing would invite it.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "The margin tells us whether Platner's base is rock solid or if Democratic voters are quietly jumping ship. That answer will define whether he faces a general election or a coup before July."
Comments