Former Republican Gov. Paul LePage is heading to the general election in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, clearing a significant hurdle in what could be a pivotal flip for Republicans in one of the nation's most competitive House races.
The GOP's path to victory depends on which Democrat emerges from a three-way primary that will be decided through ranked choice voting. The crowded field reflects deep divisions within the party as Democrats scramble to hold a seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Jared Golden, one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus who somehow held the district even as Donald Trump won it twice.
Joe Baldacci, a state senator and son of former Maine Gov. John Baldacci, carries the party establishment's blessing. The House Democratic campaign committee and its allied super PAC have backed him as their preferred nominee to reclaim the seat.
Jordan Wood, a former chief of staff to California Rep. Katie Porter and a top organizer at End Citizens United, represents the progressive wing of the party. He's outraised both opponents by a substantial margin, despite lacking party backing. State Auditor Matt Dunlap, the former secretary of state, rounds out the Democratic field, campaigning on progressive priorities including Medicare for All while leveraging decades of state political experience.
Since no candidate is projected to win a majority in the first round, Maine's ranked choice system will kick in. Voters ranked their second, third, and fourth choices on the ballot, and those votes will be reallocated from lowest-performing candidates until only two remain. The candidate with the most votes in that final pairing wins the primary.
The winner will immediately become a top target in the general election. Golden's departure creates an opening Republicans have long coveted in a district that has shifted red in recent presidential cycles. The seat represents precisely the kind of swing territory that will decide control of the House.
Across the country Tuesday, Democrats faced additional pressure in several key races. Three Nevada incumbents, all representing districts that remain genuinely competitive, held their seats. Reps. Dina Titus, Susie Lee, and Steven Horsford won primaries in districts ranging from lean-Democratic to Trump-friendly territory. All three have histories of winning in tough races.
The South Carolina primary results highlighted the starkness of the partisan map. State Sen. Wes Climer ran unopposed for a Republican primary in the 3rd District, virtually guaranteeing his election in a district Trump won by 23 points. In the neighboring 1st District, where the Republican primary remained unsettled, the eventual GOP nominee will face a Democratic runoff between retired Vice Admiral Nancy Lacore, who was previously fired as chief of the Navy Reserve, and Coast Guard veteran Mac Deford. Both will enter the general election as decisive underdogs in a district Trump won by 13 points.
In North Dakota, freshman Republican Rep. Julie Fedorchak survived a primary challenge from convention-endorsed rival Alex Balazs, retaining her seat for a likely easy general election victory.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Maine's ranked choice system will spare Democrats from a bruising runoff, but it won't change the grim reality that Golden's retirement has handed Republicans their best shot at this seat in years."
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