Two major online betting platforms are moving to silence paid influencers who deny election results, escalating efforts to curb misinformation spreading across social media.
Kalshi and Polymarket, which allow users to wager on election outcomes and other events, have begun enforcing restrictions against their paid creators and affiliate partners who question the integrity of voting. Kalshi now explicitly prohibits compensated content creators from challenging election accuracy or official determinations. Polymarket has similarly declared that any affiliate post denying an election result violates its terms of service banning false and misleading content.
The action follows a wave of unfounded fraud claims targeting California's recent election. Last week, Kalshi requested that influencers remove posts spreading misinformation about the vote. One video from commentator David Freeman, a Trump supporter paid to promote the site, stated bluntly: "Let's talk about California for a second. You know they're cheating. I know they're cheating. You know they're cheating. We all know they're cheating."
Polymarket took similar action against two of its paid affiliates, asking them to remove sponsorship tags from posts making false claims. Conservative influencer Benny Johnson suggested that Democratic candidate Nithya Raman's odds of winning the Los Angeles mayoral race improved on the platform because "the public has so little faith in California's elections that they just assume Democrats are going to dramatically rig it." Streamer Kangmin Lee posted another sponsored message claiming that late-arriving mail-in ballots consistently favor Democrats, calling it "totally a coincidence."
Prediction markets have emerged as a significant new arena for political wagering in the United States. These platforms function like betting exchanges where users trade on the outcomes of sporting events, geopolitical developments, and elections. While some countries like Spain have banned such markets under gambling regulations, American platforms operate largely without restriction, even in states with long histories of gambling prohibition.
The rapid growth of prediction markets has attracted regulatory scrutiny and high-profile scandals. Federal investigators are examining whether former congressman George Santos engaged in insider trading by placing bets on his own attendance at the State of the Union address through Kalshi. The company also disciplined three political candidates in April for trading on their own election prospects. Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed criminal charges against Kalshi in March, alleging it unlawfully permitted betting on elections.
The platforms have notable political connections. Donald Trump Jr. serves as an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket. Trump's social media platform Truth Social is developing its own prediction market called Truth Predict.
California's ballot-counting process has become a flashpoint for baseless fraud allegations. The state deliberately counts votes slowly, following meticulous procedures to verify ballots and allow voters to correct errors. Despite this transparency, Trump and other Republicans have promoted unfounded claims of electoral fraud since the primary.
Author James Rodriguez: "These platforms finally recognizing they can't monetize election lies is a step forward, but it's telling that it took visible public misinformation to trigger the response."
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