Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass will square off against City Council member Nithya Raman in a November runoff election, with no incumbent advantage and a volatile electorate still making up its mind.
The two Democrats emerged as the top two finishers in a crowded all-party primary, but not before a late counting pattern shifted the race dramatically. Former reality TV star Spencer Pratt, a registered Republican who mounted an insurgent campaign centered on Bass' wildfire response, held second place on election night. As mail ballots continued to be processed, however, the results tilted Democratic, allowing Raman to overtake Pratt and secure her spot in the general election.
Bass won her first mayoral term in 2022 with a decisive victory over real estate developer Rick Caruso, but her standing has deteriorated sharply. Last year's wildfires burned over 16,000 structures and exposed infrastructure failures, including water shortages that hampered firefighting efforts. Bass faced particular criticism for being out of the country when the fires broke out. By March of this year, 56% of Los Angeles Times poll respondents viewed her unfavorably, creating an opening her opponents rushed to exploit.
Raman, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, launched her bid despite previously endorsing Bass for re-election and receiving Bass' support in her own City Council race in 2024. At a campaign rally, Raman described hitting "a wall of reluctance" in City Hall when trying to advance policy changes on housing, homelessness, and public safety.
Bass countered by questioning Raman's credibility as an outsider. "For you to act like you're brand new or you've been on the outside for the last almost six years is not accurate," Bass said at a May debate. The mayor also acknowledged voter frustrations while highlighting her administration's accomplishments, projecting confidence at her election night speech about securing victory in November.
The Pratt factor drew outsized national attention to the race. The former "Hills" star lost his home in the fires and pledged to eliminate homelessness if elected. His campaign generated constant social media content and criticism of Bass, Governor Gavin Newsom, and state Democrats. President Donald Trump, while declining to formally endorse, offered public encouragement, saying he'd "like to see him do well."
The elimination of Pratt reshapes the general election landscape entirely. A Los Angeles Times poll conducted before the primary tested multiple matchup scenarios. Both Bass and Raman dominated hypothetical face-offs against Pratt, presenting a traditional partisan contest where Democratic candidates would be favored. The Bass-versus-Raman matchup, however, told a different story: Raman polled at 32% support to Bass' 28%, a margin within the error range, while a striking 40% of respondents remained undecided or said they wouldn't vote.
That volatility suggests a genuinely competitive race between two Democrats with competing visions for the city's future. Raman's pathway to victory depends on consolidating progressive voters frustrated with Bass' first term and attracting some of the undecided middle. Bass must rebuild public confidence in her leadership while defending her record against a challenger from her own party who shares some of her values but questions her execution.
The runoff will test whether Bass' name recognition and establishment support can overcome voter dissatisfaction, or whether Raman's fresher political positioning resonates with a city grappling with homelessness, housing costs, and lingering anger over the wildfire response.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "A mayor polling under 30% in her own party's primary is in genuine trouble, and Bass has four months to convince voters she deserves another term."
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