Federal investigators are examining whether George Santos, the disgraced former New York congressman, exploited inside information when he wagered on a prediction market about his own attendance at Trump's State of the Union address in February.
The Department of Justice is looking into the bet placed on Kalshi, an online platform that allows users to wager on real-world events, according to multiple reports. Santos had publicly announced plans to attend the speech before reversing course and blaming travel complications for his absence.
Kalshi itself flagged the transaction to federal regulators at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, signaling internal concerns about the suspicious timing and nature of the wager.
When asked by NPR directly whether he maintained a Kalshi account, Santos offered a non-answer: "I'm not saying yes. I'm not saying no." He later dismissed the reporting as "rag reporting" on social media, insisting his situation remained unchanged.
The investigation arrives as prediction markets have come under increasing fire from lawmakers and regulators. The platforms have drawn criticism for a pattern of potentially compromised betting activity. In April, Kalshi issued fines to three congressional candidates for wagering on their own races. That same month, a U.S. soldier was detained after placing bets on Polymarket regarding the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, in which he had direct involvement.
Santos has faced legal turbulence since leaving Congress. He was expelled in December 2023 following an ethics committee finding that he had misused campaign funds for personal expenses including travel, cosmetic procedures, and luxury items. In April 2025, he was sentenced to seven years in prison after admitting to wire fraud and identity theft. Trump subsequently commuted his sentence.
Author James Rodriguez: "The pattern of suspicious bets tied to political insiders keeps growing, and it raises hard questions about whether these platforms can police themselves before regulators step in harder."
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