Federal authorities are investigating whether former Rep. George Santos placed bets against his own attendance at President Trump's State of the Union address in February, according to sources familiar with the matter. The prediction market Kalshi flagged the unusual betting activity to the Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Santos, 37, had publicly committed to attending the speech. In a video posted to X, he declared: "I'm gonna be in the gallery." He did not show up. Meanwhile, the betting platform detected that he had been wagering against his own appearance at the event, the source said.
The investigation centers on whether Santos may have committed fraud by making misleading public statements while simultaneously profiting from bets predicting he would not attend. Such conduct could potentially violate securities laws or wire fraud statutes, though investigators have not disclosed their specific theory of the case.
Santos acknowledged the DOJ scrutiny on Thursday in a post on X, writing that the allegations are "preposterous." He pledged to cooperate with any investigation and requested that media outlets refrain from inquiring further. "I will comment when appropriate and clarify everything accordingly while being mindful and respectful of any process that might be underway," he wrote.
The Justice Department declined to comment. Kalshi, the prediction market, also refused to discuss the matter. A CFTC representative issued a standard statement saying the agency cannot confirm or deny investigations, though a source confirmed that Santos is being examined without specifying the scope or timeline.
Santos has already faced substantial legal consequences. He was expelled from Congress in December 2023 after serving less than a year representing New York's 3rd congressional district. Last year he pleaded guilty to wire fraud, identity theft and money laundering, receiving a sentence of 87 months in prison. He was ordered to pay nearly $374,000 in restitution and over $200,000 in forfeiture. President Trump commuted his sentence earlier this year, citing poor prison conditions.
The former congressman's troubles extend beyond his criminal case. The New York Times and other outlets revealed in 2022 that he fabricated significant portions of his resume and personal biography. Images of him in drag from years prior also surfaced online, generating international attention during his brief time in office.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "The betting angle is a fresh wrinkle on Santos' seemingly endless legal saga, but it's worth watching whether the feds can actually prove scienter here or if this is another case of his chaotic behavior looking worse than it legally is."
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