California's primary results delivered a sobering message to Democrats seeking to reshape their party through generational turnover: the incumbents aren't going quietly.
Reps. Brad Sherman and Mike Thompson, both in their 70s, cruised to comfortable top-two finishes in Tuesday's jungle primaries, guaranteeing them spots in November's general election. Sherman's 71-year-old campaign seized on the outcome as vindication, declaring the results a "direct repudiation" of claims that voters prioritize youth and fresh perspectives over experience.
Sherman's Democratic challenger Jake Levine finished a distant third, eliminating any path to the general election. Thompson's rival, Eric Jones, found himself fighting just to keep second place, trailing Republican Ray Riehle by about three percentage points with roughly half the votes counted.
In both cases, the underlying math works decisively in the incumbents' favor. Sherman and Thompson represent solidly Democratic districts, meaning either will almost certainly win reelection come November regardless of which Republican makes the general ballot.
"We always know that primarying incumbents is really, really hard," said Amanda Litman, founder of Run for Something, a group backing progressive candidates. "The incumbents are almost always going to win."
Not every California incumbent found the same smooth sailing. Rep. Doris Matsui, 81, held just under 31 percent of the vote with nearly half the ballots still uncounted on Wednesday morning. Progressive challenger Mai Vang trailed at 25 percent, with Republican Zachariah Wooden hovering close behind at 24 percent, raising the possibility of a competitive general election.
Rep. Jimmy Gomez finished ahead in his primary but faces a runoff against progressive challenger Angela Gonzales-Torres in November. Unlike Levine and Jones, who centered their campaigns on age and generational change, Vang and Gonzales-Torres positioned themselves as progressive policy alternatives to establishment-backed incumbents.
The distinction matters. Litman noted that "change is presented as both generational and policy-wise" tends to resonate more with voters than generational arguments alone. "If you can't paint that picture for how things will be different, you run into some problems," she said.
Progressives haven't abandoned their mission to reshape the Democratic caucus. Adam Hamawy, a former combat surgeon whose Iraq War heroics include saving a future senator's life, won a Democratic primary to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman in New Jersey. Across the country, Sam Forstag, a smoke jumper backed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is leading Montana's 1st congressional district Democratic primary. In California's agricultural heartland, progressive Randy Villegas is outpacing the Democratic establishment's preferred candidate in the race to challenge Republican incumbent David Valadao.
Litman remained philosophical about the California setbacks. "The fact that these races are happening at all is indicative of how little control the establishment has to box people out or clear the field," she said, suggesting the generational challenge to party leadership remains viable even when individual races don't pan out.
Author James Rodriguez: "Sherman and Thompson's comfortable wins prove that incumbency and cash still matter more than youth in a primary fight, but the progressives showed they can at least force candidates to play defense in Democratic strongholds."
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