Vote counting stretched into Wednesday morning across the nation, revealing a fractured California gubernatorial contest and a broader 2026 landscape where Democrats smell opportunity despite holding the White House, while Republicans cling to narrow advantages in states where Trump still commands grassroots loyalty.
Republican Steve Hilton, a British-born Fox News personality backed by Trump, held a slight edge in California's governor's race with roughly half the ballots counted. Democrat Xavier Becerra, a former health secretary who endured a difficult campaign, remained competitive for the second spot. California's nonpartisan primary system guarantees the two highest vote-getters face off in November, regardless of party affiliation. Billionaire Tom Steyer's progressive campaign trailed in third.
The results across multiple states painted a portrait of a midterm cycle tilting Democratic. Special election victories since Trump returned to office have emboldened the party, and vulnerable Republican incumbents suddenly look beatable in districts once considered safe.
In New Jersey's suburban 12th district, Democrats nominated Rebecca Bennett, a former healthcare executive and navy veteran, to challenge Republican congressman Tom Kean Jr. The race gained urgency as Kean has been absent from Congress for three months with no explanation offered to constituents or colleagues. Bennett emerged from a crowded primary in a swing district Trump narrowly carried last year.
Iowa offered Democrats their boldest opportunity. Josh Turek, a state legislator and self-described prairie populist, defeated establishment Democrat Zach Wahls in the Senate primary. Turek's life story, marked by his use of a wheelchair and status as a Paralympic gold medalist, combined with his moderate appeal, prompted the Cook Political Report to shift the race from likely Republican to lean Republican. Turek will face former broadcaster Ashley Hinson this fall.
In Iowa House races, Republicans re-nominated two incumbent representatives widely seen as vulnerable. Democrat Christina Bohannan, who lost to Mariannette Miller-Meeks by just 800 votes two years ago, won her party's nomination for a rematch. State senator Sarah Trone Garriott secured the Democratic nomination to face Zach Nunn, both running unopposed in their primaries.
California's redistricting gamble took center stage. Voters approved new congressional maps designed to flip Republican-held seats in retaliation for GOP efforts in Texas and other states. Scott Wiener, a state senator known for housing and LGBTQ+ advocacy, captured the Democratic nomination to succeed retiring House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, though a runoff with other candidates remained possible.
Gubernatorial contests nationwide set the stage for November showdowns with outsized consequences in an era of Washington dysfunction. Democrat Rob Sand, an Iowa state auditor projecting both populist and moderate credentials, emerged as the party's pick to replace retiring Republican governor Kim Reynolds. In New Mexico, Deb Haaland, the former interior secretary, won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in a state tilted blue, putting her on track to become the nation's first female Native American governor.
South Dakota's Republican governor's race headed to a runoff as businessman Toby Doeden advanced while incumbent Larry Rhoden, who took over when Kristi Noem joined Trump's cabinet, fought for the second spot.
Republican strength held in some unexpected quarters. In Montana, Trump's talk radio host ally Aaron Flint topped the Republican primary for the state's lone House seat, though Democrats sensed vulnerability given Trump's cratering popularity in the state. Kurt Alme won Montana's Republican Senate primary but faces a strong independent challenger in Seth Bodnar, with questions surrounding whether Democrats will consolidate behind Bodnar rather than splinter the anti-Republican vote.
New Jersey's 12th congressional district produced an unlikely victor. Adam Hamawy, a plastic surgeon and army veteran who traveled to Gaza on a medical mission, clinched the Democratic nomination in the safely blue seat. A vocal Israel critic, Hamawy will almost certainly become New Jersey's first Muslim representative in Congress after winning a crowded primary of nearly a dozen candidates.
The night underscored competing forces reshaping both parties. Democrats showcased a deliberate mix of moderates and progressives calibrated for different regions, from deep-blue urban districts to rural areas where unexpected special election victories have suggested new openings. Republicans, meanwhile, remained largely unified behind Trump's slate of endorsed candidates, even as his approval ratings slip.
Author James Rodriguez: "California's wide-open governor's race between a British-born Fox personality and a Biden-era bureaucrat perfectly captures how unsexy this cycle has become for both sides."
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