Voters across California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota head to the polls Tuesday for contests that will shape Democratic direction and determine matchups in critical November battlegrounds. The results will settle both personal rivalries and ideological divides within the party while forcing numerous incumbents to fight for political survival.
California dominates the agenda with its race to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom. The contest has crystallized into a three-way battle between Democrat Xavier Becerra, a former Biden Cabinet member and longtime congressman, billionaire activist Tom Steyer, and Republican Steve Hilton, a television personality backed by President Donald Trump. The field also includes former Rep. Katie Porter, ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state Schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
Becerra has surged after Rep. Eric Swalwell exited following sexual misconduct allegations. He has positioned himself as an experienced administrator with a federal record, though critics from his former administration colleagues have questioned his ability to manage California's sprawling government. Steyer has invested more than $215 million of his personal fortune into the race, saturating California airwaves with advertising while promoting progressive priorities including single-payer healthcare and taxes on oil profits.
Trump's endorsement of Hilton may have inadvertently helped Democrats by reducing the likelihood that two Republicans advance to November. In the state's top-two primary format, all candidates compete on a single ballot with the top two finishers moving forward regardless of party affiliation, meaning it is possible for one party to be shut out entirely.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass faces her own all-party primary challenge from Republican Spencer Pratt, a reality television personality who lost his home in the Palisades Fire and has criticized her response to the crisis, and Democrat Nithya Raman, a City Council member aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America. Trump has publicly encouraged Pratt's candidacy. Bass could win outright Tuesday with a majority of the vote, otherwise the top two advance to a runoff in November.
California House primaries are shaping up as a significant arena of party conflict. Democrats redrew congressional lines hoping to gain up to five seats, and several Democratic incumbents now face serious threats from members of their own party. Reps. Mike Thompson, Doris Matsui and Brad Sherman all contend with well-funded challengers demanding new progressive leadership. Reps. Jimmy Gomez and Linda Sánchez face primary competition as well. On the Republican side, Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim battle in a contentious race where a divided electorate could allow a Democrat to block one from advancing.
California's deep-blue open seats present another major storyline. In San Francisco's 11th District, Nancy Pelosi's retirement set off a crowded primary. Pelosi belatedly endorsed Board of Supervisors member Connie Chan, but state Sen. Scott Weiner, backed by the state party, and Saikat Chakrabarti, a former congressional aide with progressive backing, have dominated fundraising and launched attacks on one another. The 38th District east of Los Angeles features former Labor Secretary Hilda Solis attempting a congressional return, though City Council member Monica Sánchez, backed by Rep. Linda Sánchez, poses a formidable challenge.
Iowa holds the second major prize on Tuesday. Democratic hopes rest on State Auditor Rob Sand in the open gubernatorial race, which became competitive after GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds declined to seek a third term. Sand, regarded as a strong contender with fundraising power and bipartisan appeal, faces a fractured Republican field. Rep. Randy Feenstra, backed by Trump, initially appeared to be the front-runner, but farmer Zach Lahn has mounted a serious challenge using his own money and backing from the MAHA Action movement. Other Republican contenders include state Rep. Eddie Andrews, former state Administrative Services Director Adam Steen and former state Rep. Brad Sherman. If no candidate reaches 35 percent, the Republican nominee will be chosen at the state convention on June 13.
Democrats see an opening in the Senate race as well, where retiring Republican Joni Ernst creates an open seat. Republicans have largely coalesced around Rep. Ashley Hinson, who carries Trump's endorsement. The Democratic primary features state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. Josh Turek, who has clashed over electability and ideology. Turek, a Paralympian and self-described prairie populist with former Sen. Tom Harkin's endorsement, has emphasized his appeal in Republican-leaning areas. Wahls, backed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren and multiple labor unions, has positioned his campaign around putting Iowans before insiders. The pair have matched each other in fundraising, though VoteVets has spent over $9 million supporting Turek despite his lack of military service, citing his father's exposure to Agent Orange during the Vietnam War.
House races across multiple states feature competitive primaries that will determine general election matchups. In California's 22nd District near Fresno, Rep. David Valadao faces an internal Democratic battle between state Assemblymember Jasmeet Baines, backed by establishment Democrats, and school board member Randy Villegas, supported by progressives. The San Diego-area 48th District, redrawn into Democratic-lean territory, features two major Democrats in San Diego City Council member Marni von Wilpert and military veteran Ammar Campa-Najjar competing after Republican Darrell Issa retired. Republican Jim Desmond, backed by Trump, represents the party's main contender.
New Jersey's 7th District presents a peculiar landscape. GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr. faces no Republican challenge but has vanished from public view for months. Four Democrats have each raised over a million dollars, and significant outside spending has targeted front-runner Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot and healthcare executive. Concerns linger that shadowy funding may originate from Republicans attempting to manipulate the Democratic primary, though no evidence has surfaced. The 9th District, which Trump won by one point in 2024, could also shift toward Republicans, with Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou vulnerable against underfunded GOP challengers.
Montana's 1st District, vacated by retiring Rep. Ryan Zinke, features Trump backing combat veteran and radio host Aaron Flint against Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and former state Sen. Albert Olszewski. Democrats nominate from a field including Ryan Busse, the party's 2024 gubernatorial nominee, firefighter Sam Forstag backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and education advocate Russ Cleveland. New Mexico's 2nd District, barely won by Trump in 2024, pits Democrat Gabe Vasquez against Trump-backed former police officer Greg Cunningham.
A significant battle over Israel policy is unfolding in New Jersey's 12th District, where Adam Hamawy, a surgeon credited by Sen. Tammy Duckworth with saving her life in Iraq, leads fundraising and has progressive heavyweight backing despite being stranded in Gaza during Israel's war with Hamas. He competes against East Brunswick Mayor Brad Cohen and former congressional nominee Sue Altman. Retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman has opposed Cohen as a Netanyahu supporter, while American Priorities, formed to counter pro-Israel group spending, has invested heavily for Hamawy.
In California's 38th District, former Labor Secretary Hilda Solis is running to reclaim a House seat after her Obama administration tenure, but faces City Council member Monica Sánchez, backed by Rep. Linda Sánchez. Other open Democratic seats in deep-blue California include the 1st District, redrawn to favor Democrats after Trump won it previously, the 14th in the Bay Area vacated by Swalwell, and the 26th near Los Angeles being left by Rep. Julia Brownley. A central question in these races is whether both finalists will be Democrats or whether Republicans can secure a spot in the general election.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Tuesday's primaries will expose real fractures in Democratic ideology and strategy, and California's race to replace Newsom could signal whether the party is ready to move beyond its establishment consensus."
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