California's experiment with open primaries, now stretching into its second decade, is suddenly under fire from within the state's dominant Democratic party. The concern is straightforward: in a crowded race with multiple Democratic candidates splitting votes, two Republicans could slip through to the general election, a nightmare scenario that haunts party strategists in a state where Democrats hold overwhelming power.
The open primary system, formally known as the top-two primary, took effect in 2012 after California voters approved it in 2010 under then-Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. The Republican governor championed the measure as a way to inject competition into races Democrats had come to control almost by default. Schwarzenegger remains the last Republican elected to statewide office in California.
The mechanics are simple. Instead of each party holding separate primaries to select their nominee, all candidates for a given office now appear on a single ballot. Voters can pick anyone they want, regardless of their own party registration. The top two vote-getters, whatever their party affiliation, advance to November's general election.
The theory sounded solid at the time. Candidates, facing an electorate broader than just party loyalists, would supposedly moderate their positions and appeal beyond their partisan base. Nebraska and Washington adopted similar systems. Abel Maldonado, a Republican who led California's push for the change, told the Atlantic in 2015 that under the new system, politicians would finally "have to work for the taxpayers."
But what seemed like a clever fix has become a potential liability for Democrats. In this year's gubernatorial race, early polls showed conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, both Republicans, commanding significant support. With a field of ambitious Democrats all competing simultaneously, the math looked ominous: vote fragmentation among Democrats could allow two Republicans to dominate the primary and face each other in November.
That scenario now appears to have been averted. In April, Democratic frontrunner Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign following sexual assault allegations, which he has denied. The collapse opened space for Xavier Becerra, the former US secretary of health and human services, to consolidate Democratic support. Around the same time, Donald Trump endorsed Hilton, an endorsement that appeared to rally Republican voters around the British-born pundit rather than spreading them across multiple candidates.
Yet the narrow escape has shaken Democratic confidence. Steven Maviglio, a veteran Democratic strategist, has already filed a proposal for a 2028 ballot measure that would dismantle the top-two system entirely and return California to traditional partisan primaries. "It's a failed experiment that even the remote possibility of a Democrat having to choose between two Trump Republicans in November is enough to scare the bejesus out of anyone," Maviglio told the San Francisco Chronicle in May.
Maviglio's proposal faces a lengthy path before reaching voters. The state attorney general must issue a summary, a legislative analyst must calculate costs, and organizers must gather a required number of signatures. But it reflects genuine panic within party leadership. Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Party, has made similar arguments for reform. "The current system we have does not work," he said earlier this year. "It needs to be revised or repealed."
The irony is sharp. The system was sold as a way to break Democratic dominance and create genuine electoral competition. Instead, Democrats are discovering that their dominance actually makes the system vulnerable to their own worst-case scenarios. Republicans, by contrast, have worried about the opposite problem: being locked out of general election matchups in a state where Democrats often run multiple candidates for the same seat.
The question now is whether this year's scare will prove enough to overcome the political inertia that usually surrounds voting system changes. Another successful election cycle might cool the talk of repeal. A genuine close call in 2026 could reignite it and push the measure over the finish line in 2028.
Author James Rodriguez: "What began as a fix for Democratic dominance might end up being repealed because of it, which would be a remarkable admission that the original strategy backfired."
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