The top executives of the world's largest corporations have grown noticeably more pessimistic about economic prospects, according to a fresh survey that captures the mounting unease spreading through corporate leadership.
CEO confidence dropped 12 points in the second quarter, falling to 47 on an index where any reading below 50 signals net negative sentiment. The Conference Board and The Business Council surveyed 141 Fortune Global 500 chief executives between May 4 and May 18, a period that coincided with the third month of the ongoing Iran war.
The shift reflects a stark reversal from earlier in the year. When the Trump administration took office, CEO optimism surged to multiyear highs, buoyed by expectations of lighter regulatory oversight and significant tax cuts. That enthusiasm persisted briefly even after the administration reversed course on its most aggressive tariff proposals, but the geopolitical crisis appears to have extinguished the momentum entirely.
Nearly half of surveyed CEOs now say economic conditions have worsened, a dramatic jump from just 8 percent at the start of the year. Only 15 percent reported that conditions had improved over the past six months, down sharply from 39 percent in the first quarter.
The implications reach far beyond the boardroom. When business leaders lose confidence, they typically become more cautious about hiring and capital spending, creating a potential drag on broader economic growth at a time when consumer and investor sentiment are already fragile.
There are some offsetting signals. Despite the gloom among executives, stock investors have remained less rattled by the survey results. More notably, a growing share of CEOs indicated they still plan to increase capital investment in the coming year, suggesting that corporate leadership has not yet fully translated their pessimism into scaled-back spending plans.
The broader picture shows CEO sentiment now mirrors the caution evident in recent consumer surveys, with American optimism about the economy broadly weakening across multiple measures. The combination of geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty has created a notably subdued mood in both corporate suites and households nationwide.
Author James Rodriguez: "CEOs talking down the economy while still planning to invest is the oldest hedging game in business, but the scale of the confidence collapse here is real and worth watching closely."
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