Ken Paxton's stunning primary victory over four-term Sen. John Cornyn has left Republicans grappling with an uncomfortable reality: their nominee appears unlikely to generate the fundraising firepower needed to compete in an expensive, increasingly competitive race against Democrat James Talarico.
Trump's endorsement delivered Paxton a decisive win in Tuesday's runoff, but party operatives now face the prospect of massively exceeding their original spending plans to keep Texas in Republican hands. The numbers tell the story. Talarico has raised more than $40 million and pulled in $600,000 within two hours of Paxton's victory. Paxton, by contrast, had accumulated just $7.6 million with $2.3 million remaining to spend as of May 6.
"Economically, it's a disaster. Texas is extremely expensive," said one GOP consultant working on Senate races who asked not to be named. The state's roughly 20 media markets mean statewide television advertising alone can cost several million dollars weekly. Republicans now expect to quadruple their original spending commitments, potentially reaching $100 million and straining resources across other critical battlegrounds as the party fights to preserve its Senate majority.
The funding problem reflects a deeper liability: Cornyn cultivated deep-pocketed donors over decades in the Senate, but those contributors may not transfer their loyalty to Paxton. The attorney general was impeached in 2023 on bribery and corruption charges and later acquitted. George Seay, a longtime Cornyn friend and major donor, declined to commit to supporting Paxton when asked by NBC News, though he acknowledged the race was now "definitely in play."
"Is Paxton going to raise a lot of money? Probably not," Seay said. He suggested, however, that vast spending differences might matter less than conventional wisdom suggests. "I think most people aren't paying attention," he said.
The Outside Money Machine Activates
Republican groups aligned with Trump and conservative causes are positioning themselves as the financial backstop. MAGA Inc., the Trump-aligned super PAC, held more than $350 million in its account as of April 30 and has not ruled out significant Texas spending. The Club for Growth endorsed Paxton on Tuesday night, and Lone Star Liberty PAC, Paxton's aligned outside group, already spent over $17 million on ads during the primary and runoff.
Gregg Keller, who runs Lone Star Liberty, said fundraising was off to an "extremely fast start" following the runoff, with the group reaching out to grassroots and major donors, including some who backed Cornyn earlier. "This is going to be a well-funded campaign. The response we're getting is really good," Keller said. Yet he acknowledged uncertainty about matching Talarico's out-of-state fundraising advantage. "Are we going to be able to match New York City money? Are we going to be able to match San Francisco money? I don't know; that's a tall order," he said.
Senate Minority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., whose Senate Leadership Fund backed Cornyn in the primary, said Republicans must "go all-in" to keep Texas red. Thune called on donors nationwide to step up. "Clearly I'm hoping that donors around the country and donors in Texas will step up big," he said.
Another veteran GOP Senate consultant warned that the entire Republican apparatus would need to mobilize. "It's going to take the entire ecosystem: MAGA Inc., the Club, SLF and Paxton's super PAC," the consultant said, describing "significant" resource disparities ahead.
Some Texas Republicans sought to downplay alarm. Brendan Steinhauser, who managed Cornyn's 2014 campaign, noted that Cornyn endorsed the GOP ticket on Tuesday, signaling to his donors that they should support Paxton in November. "Some might be on the sidelines for a while. But let's check back in September," Steinhauser said, suggesting urgency would increase donor participation as the general election approached.
Former Texas GOP Chairman James Dickey said he was unaware of major donors planning to sit out the general election and framed Democratic fundraising dominance as a persistent challenge for Republicans, not unique to Paxton. He noted that since 2018, the party has had to dedicate resources to defending Texas that it would have preferred to deploy elsewhere.
The 2018 Cruz-O'Rourke Senate race looms as a cautionary tale. O'Rourke raised $80 million to Ted Cruz's $35 million, yet Cruz still won by less than 3 points. Cruz warned his party Wednesday not to assume victory. "Do not take this general election for granted," he said. "I believe we are going to win. But I also think the Democrat nominee, James Talarico, is a dangerous candidate."
Republicans have begun defining Talarico through attacks on past statements about cultural issues, including remarks about race, gender, and vegan products for a campaign. The GOP's outside group launched television ads targeting those comments, which the group said generated donor interest. Stephen Miller, the White House deputy chief of staff, amplified the attack on social media, calling Talarico Texas' "first transgender Senate candidate."
Talarico responded by acknowledging some past comments "missed the mark" but framed them as distraction from a far more serious issue. "Ken Paxton has a criminal record; I have a legislative record," Talarico said, noting he was instead focused on economic hardship. "Texans are drowning right now. We can't afford the basics." Paxton does not have a criminal record, though he was indicted in 2015 on securities fraud charges and reached a deal in 2024 to avoid trial.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Paxton's grassroots appeal to Trump voters may energize the base, but base enthusiasm doesn't pay for $20 million in weekly television advertising across 20 media markets."
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