Democrat Johnny Garcia has secured his party's nomination in Texas' 35th Congressional District, defeating a candidate whose inflammatory statements about Jewish Americans triggered a rare show of unity among national Democratic leaders and raised questions about Republican strategy in a newly redrawn seat.
The primary outcome reflects the messy politics of redistricting. Republicans combined two Democratic districts into one stretching from Austin to San Antonio, betting they could flip the seat by adding Republican-leaning territory. Donald Trump won the district by 10.5 points last year, suggesting GOP confidence in the map.
But the aggressive spending to support Garcia's rival, sex therapist Maureen Galindo, tells a different story. An opaque super PAC called Lead Left PAC, with reported links to GOP fundraising operations, spent roughly $1 million boosting Galindo despite the controversies surrounding her. In recent social media posts, Galindo called for turning an ICE detention center into a prison for what she described as "American Zionists and former ICE officers." House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and other top Democrats denounced her statements as antisemitic and dangerous, accusing Republicans of deliberately elevating her candidacy.
Galindo's unexpected strength in the March primary showed she could appeal to voters without a war chest. She finished first with 29 percent despite raising less than $10,000, forcing a runoff under Texas law when neither candidate hit 50 percent. Her presence in the general election would have complicated matters for Republicans, who appeared to be calculating they could use her against the Democratic Party itself.
Garcia benefited from heavy backing by mainstream Democratic groups. The Blue Dog Democrats' aligned committee, Project 2018, and Democratic Majority for Israel combined to spend roughly $800,000 supporting him.
Garcia will face Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz in November. De La Cruz won the Republican runoff Tuesday, overcoming state Rep. John Lujan despite Lujan's endorsement from Gov. Greg Abbott. Trump backed De La Cruz. De La Cruz is the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz, who represents a nearby district.
The spending patterns suggest Republicans may have overestimated their hand. Brandon Steinhauser, a veteran Texas Republican strategist and former top aide to Sen. John Cornyn, told NBC News that Republican mapmakers assumed Trump's improved performance with Hispanic voters would stick with the broader GOP ticket. The new district is about 52 percent Hispanic by voting-age population.
History suggests caution. Trump won the territory by only 2 points in 2020, and in 2018, Democrat Beto O'Rourke nearly matched Republican Ted Cruz there. More recent polling indicates Trump may be losing ground with Hispanic voters compared to 2024, both nationally and in Texas.
"It's probably fair to look at this and say it was a little aggressive or overconfident," Steinhauser said of the redistricting strategy. He added that the GOP shouldn't lose the seat but that the risks could be real.
Republicans claim their Texas map will net them five additional seats overall. Two districts in Houston and Fort Worth lean heavily Republican. The other two, along the Rio Grande Valley and currently held by Democrats, were made more GOP-friendly but will likely feature competitive fall battles.
The scenario echoes 2012, when a Democrat favored to win a statewide nomination had to survive a runoff against an activist who pushed impeaching President Barack Obama and distributed images of him with a Hitler mustache. Democrats themselves deployed similar tactics four years ago, boosting candidates in Republican primaries they believed would be easier to defeat.
Three Republicans won primary runoffs for House seats their party is heavily favored to win. Trump-backed military veteran Alex Mealer won in the 9th District, real estate professional Jon Bonck secured the 38th, and former congressional aide Tom Sell claimed the 19th.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Republicans betting the farm on a redrawn map while openly boosting a candidate with antisemitic baggage is the kind of high-wire act that can collapse fast when assumptions about voter behavior don't hold up."
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