Donald Trump's last-minute endorsement of Ken Paxton over John Cornyn in Tuesday's Texas Republican Senate runoff marks the latest test of the former president's influence within GOP ranks. The endorsement, announced just a week before voters cast ballots, scrambled a race that had looked like Cornyn's to lose after the three-term senator edged Paxton 42% to 41% in the March primary.
Trump's choice dealt a blow to Cornyn despite months of pressure from Republican leadership to back the incumbent. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and other GOP figures had urged Trump to support Cornyn's bid for a fifth term, warning that Paxton's controversies could jeopardize the seat. Paxton faced impeachment on bribery and corruption charges in 2023 from the Republican-controlled state House, though the state Senate acquitted him. His wife announced last year she was divorcing him on biblical grounds.
Trump brushed aside those concerns, labeling Paxton a "True MAGA warrior" and praising his support for eliminating the Senate filibuster to pass Trump's SAVE America Act, which would require proof of citizenship to register to vote and a photo ID to cast a ballot. The president criticized Cornyn for past hesitance to back him, pointing to Cornyn's neutrality in the 2016 GOP primary and his 2024 suggestion that Trump's "time has passed him by."
Cornyn struck back by highlighting his financial advantage and warning voters that supporting Paxton meant risking the seat. His campaign and allied super PAC have spent nearly $20 million on ads since March, hammering Paxton's state record. Paxton and his allies have spent roughly $5 million, focusing their fire on Cornyn's immigration stance. The Republican winner will face Democrat James Talarico, who won his party's Senate nomination in March.
Beyond the Senate race, Texas offers several other high-stakes battles. In the 35th Congressional District, a secretive outside group with GOP connections has poured roughly $1 million into boosting Maureen Galindo, a sex therapist who finished narrowly ahead of Johnny Garcia in the first round despite raising almost no money herself. Democratic House leaders condemned Galindo last week over an Instagram post suggesting she would convert an ICE detention center "into a prison for American Zionists and former ICE officers for human trafficking" and calling many Zionists "pedophiles." Garcia, backed by most Democratic elected officials, works in the Bexar County Sheriff's Office.
The shadowy group behind Galindo, Lead Left PAC, has not disclosed its donors but was previously linked to a GOP fundraising platform, sparking speculation that Republicans are boosting her to make the district uncompetitive in the general election. Trump carried this Austin-to-San Antonio slice by 10.5 points in 2024.
Two Democratic House incumbents face elimination. Reps. Christian Menefee and Al Green are running head-to-head after Republican redistricting forced them into the same Houston seat. Menefee, 37, won his seat through a special election just months ago and has benefited from over $2 million in super PAC spending from a crypto-linked group. Green, 78, is leaning on his long congressional record and vocal Trump opposition. In the Dallas area, Rep. Julie Johnson faces former Rep. Colin Allred in another Democratic runoff. Allred, who ran for Senate in 2024 and played professional football, led Johnson 44% to 33% in the first round.
Several safe Republican seats will likely decide who enters Congress next year. In the 9th District suburban Houston runoff, Trump-backed military veteran Alex Mealer narrowly edged state Rep. Briscoe Cain in March. Mealer and her allies have significantly outspent Cain. The 38th District features Trump-backed real estate worker Jon Bonck against conservative activist Shelly deZevallos, who has endorsements from multiple congressmen. In West Texas, former congressional aide Tom Sell nearly won the 19th District primary but now faces Abbott-backed Abraham Enriquez in the runoff. A pro-AI super PAC funded primarily by Andreessen Horowitz and OpenAI has backed Sell.
Trump and Governor Greg Abbott are conducting a rare proxy battle in the 35th District Republican runoff, where Trump-backed Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz faces Abbott's choice, state Rep. John Lujan, who led the March vote.
In the attorney general's race, Trump has stayed neutral but looms large. State Senator Mayes Middleton, a wealthy oilman billing himself as "MAGA Mayes," is running against Rep. Chip Roy, who has backing from Ted Cruz and has pushed Trump's SAVE America Act despite initially raising concerns about it. Roy is a member of the House Freedom Caucus and was an early DeSantis backer before ultimately supporting Trump.
Polling locations across Texas close at 8 p.m. ET, with the final statewide closing at 9 p.m. ET.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump's endorsement of Paxton proves he can still reshape Republican primaries on a dime, but it also reveals real fractures in the party over who best represents his interests and electability."
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