Senator John Cornyn faces an uphill climb in today's Republican primary runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, but his path to survival runs through a familiar set of urban and suburban strongholds that delivered him an unexpected first-place finish in March.
The dynamics favor Paxton. Limited polling shows him ahead, and he secured a major boost when President Donald Trump endorsed him last week. Yet Cornyn's March upset, when he topped Paxton 42%-41% despite trailing in most surveys, points to how the contest could break in his direction again.
The 10 largest vote-producing counties in the state tell the story. These counties generated roughly 45% of all votes cast in the preliminary round, and Cornyn captured seven of them. His edge in these population centers totaled 34,883 votes. In the remaining 244 counties, Paxton flipped the script and won by 3,065 votes statewide. The math is simple: if Cornyn can repeat that performance, and avoid catastrophic losses in rural Texas with Trump now working against him, he stays alive.
Dallas County proved Cornyn's strongest terrain in March, along with the Austin-area counties of Travis and Williamson. These regions have above-average wealth and college degree concentrations. Tarrant County around Fort Worth and Bexar County anchoring San Antonio also tilted toward him. All four remain essential.
The one major population center where Paxton dominated was Montgomery County, home to The Woodlands, a sprawling planned community with a deeply conservative base. Trump posted the largest vote plurality of any county in the nation there in 2024. Expect Paxton to run up the score again.
Northern Dallas-Fort Worth presents genuine uncertainty. Collin and Denton counties are growing rapidly and split almost evenly between the two candidates in March. Harris County, which hosts Houston and accounts for roughly 10% of all statewide votes, also proved competitive. Fort Bend County, a fast-growing Houston suburb, sits in the same category. Both remain battlegrounds.
Harris County adds another wrinkle. It is the home base of third-place finisher Rep. Wesley Hunt, who pulled 17% in the preliminary round. Hunt endorsed Paxton last week, which could help consolidate anti-Cornyn voters in his backyard.
Cornyn's resilience in smaller counties and rural areas during March was notable. While Paxton won those areas outright, Cornyn did not collapse. Whether he can maintain that floor now that Trump has entered the race against him represents the second key variable. A decisive Trump rally among rural and small-town voters could erase whatever Cornyn salvages in the population centers.
The Senator's path is narrow. He needs these 10 counties to break his way again and the state's rural regions to not hemorrhage votes as dramatically as they otherwise might. It is possible, but increasingly unlikely.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Cornyn's gamble on repeating a March surprise overlooked one critical difference: Trump wasn't explicitly against him then."
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