A potential agreement to end hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran is moving closer to reality, with Donald Trump announcing that a 'memorandum of understanding' has been largely negotiated. The framework remains fluid, and official details are still sparse, but the outlines of a possible settlement are becoming clearer.
At the center of the proposed deal is a 60-day ceasefire. During this period, Iran would clear mines it placed in the Strait of Hormuz and agree not to levy tolls on commercial shipping passing through the critical waterway. In return, the US would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports, which has been in place since mid-April, allowing Iran to freely resume oil sales.
The arrangement would also include the reopening of talks focused on Iran's nuclear program. Additionally, some frozen Iranian assets held in foreign banks would be unfrozen as part of the agreement.
Fighting would halt across all theaters. That means not just the direct confrontation between US-backed Israel and Iran, but also the broader conflict involving Lebanon and other regional fronts.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized Sunday that if successful, the deal could deliver a 'completely open' Strait of Hormuz without any toll restrictions. However, Iranian media has countered that the strait would remain under Tehran's control, signaling a gap in how each side views the arrangement's implications.
What won't make the cut appears clearer than what will. A senior Iranian official told Reuters this week that Tehran has not agreed to surrender its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, contradicting earlier reporting that suggested otherwise. The Iranian side maintains that nuclear matters are not part of this preliminary understanding with Washington.
Iran's ballistic missile program and its support for regional proxy forces, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, have received little attention in negotiations and are unlikely to be addressed in any near-term ceasefire. That omission underscores how narrow the focus of these talks has become.
The gap between rhetoric and reality remains significant. While Rubio spoke of a fully open strait without restrictions, Iran's framing suggests a different interpretation of what control means in practice. Similarly, the nuclear question remains unsettled despite claims from both sides about what Tehran will or won't accept.
Trump is expected to meet with his negotiation team to evaluate Iran's response to the ceasefire proposal, a step that could determine whether preliminary progress translates into a signed agreement or stalls in the home stretch.
Author James Rodriguez: "The devil here isn't just in the details yet unsettled, it's in how each side plans to define what they've supposedly agreed to once the ink dries."
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