The Trump administration is moving beyond rhetoric to suggest concrete action against Cuba, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio openly questioning whether diplomacy with Havana remains viable while President Trump repeatedly hints he may be the one to order military intervention.
Speaking Thursday in Miami, Rubio acknowledged the administration's preference for a negotiated resolution but expressed deep skepticism about its prospects. "The likelihood of that happening, given who we're dealing with right now, is not high," he said, referring to Cuba's current government. He added that the island has spent decades "buying time and waiting us out" but that approach will no longer work under Trump.
Trump himself amplified the military threat during remarks at the White House, telling reporters he may be the first president to actually move against Cuba. "Other presidents have looked at this for 50, 60 years," he said. "It looks like I'll be the one that does it."
The escalating rhetoric follows the administration's announcement of criminal charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro for ordering the downing of civilian aircraft in 1996. Federal prosecutors unsealed an indictment Wednesday accusing Castro of murder and destruction of an airplane in the incident that killed four people.
Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel dismissed the charges as a political stunt designed to "justify the folly of a military aggression against Cuba."
High-level diplomatic talks between US officials and Cuban representatives have already taken place in recent months, but those conversations yielded little progress. The US side emerged unimpressed, prompting a new round of sanctions this week. The administration also targeted Grupo de Administración Empresarial SA, a military-linked conglomerate that controls significant portions of Cuba's economy.
Rubio revealed Thursday that he had moved to revoke the green card of the sister of Gaesa's executive president, who was living in the United States. She has been arrested and placed in ICE custody. "Past administrations have permitted the families of Cuban military elites, Iranian terrorists and other reprehensible organisations to enjoy lavish lifestyles in our country funded by stolen blood-money," Rubio said. "No longer."
When directly asked whether the US would use military force to change Cuba's political system, Rubio stopped short of a direct answer but left the door wide open. "The president always has the option to do whatever it takes to support and protect the national interest," he said, pushing back on suggestions this amounted to nation-building.
Rubio cited Cuba's security ties to China and Russia as core national security concerns, along with the island's relationships with US adversaries in Latin America. His argument essentially frames any military action not as regime change but as counteracting foreign interference on the US doorstep.
The timing mirrors Trump's earlier playbook in Venezuela, where the administration moved from diplomatic pressure to military action in January. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured and is now imprisoned in the US facing federal drug trafficking charges, which he has pleaded not guilty to.
As a show of force, the US Navy announced the arrival of the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier and accompanying ships in the Caribbean Sea on the same day the Castro indictment was unsealed. The Pentagon officially characterized the deployment as part of maritime exercises with regional partners that began in March.
Trump has been signaling his Cuba ambitions since ousting Maduro, even proposing a "friendly takeover" of the island if its leadership would agree to open its economy to American investment and expel US adversaries.
The blockade on fuel shipments to Cuba has already created severe consequences for the island, triggering widespread blackouts, food shortages, and economic collapse. Additional sanctions announced this month are expected to deepen the pressure.
China's foreign ministry pushed back Thursday against the escalating US pressure. Spokesman Guo Jiakun said China "firmly supports Cuba in safeguarding its national sovereignty and national dignity and opposes external interference."
Author James Rodriguez: "The window for diplomacy appears to be closing fast, and Rubio's blunt assessment suggests the administration sees a military option as more realistic than a negotiated exit from the current standoff."
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