Taiwan's government signaled openness this week to a direct phone conversation with Donald Trump, a move that would shatter four decades of diplomatic convention and likely draw swift rebuke from Beijing.
Taiwan's foreign ministry said President Lai Ching-te would be "happy" to speak with Trump after the U.S. president floated the idea twice within days. "I'll speak to him. I speak to everybody," Trump told reporters Wednesday. No concrete plans for such a call have emerged, but the prospect alone highlights the delicate geopolitical tightrope Taiwan now walks.
Since the United States and China normalized relations in 1979, no sitting U.S. president has held a direct conversation with a Taiwanese leader. The island operates without formal U.S. diplomatic recognition, though Washington remains its primary military backer and closest international ally. The unspoken rule has held through Republican and Democratic administrations alike.
Trump's casual willingness to break that precedent appears tied to his recent state visit to China, where Taiwan emerged as a major point of discussion with Xi Jinping. Trump suggested afterward that he wants both countries to "cool down" on the issue, language that alarmed supporters of Taiwan's autonomy.
Lai used a Wednesday speech marking the second anniversary of his inauguration to push back against pressure from all sides. He declared that Taiwan's future rests solely with its 23 million residents, not outside powers. He said Taiwan welcomes negotiations with China but rejected any framework that treats unification as peace. If given the chance to address Trump directly, Lai indicated he would argue that China, not Taiwan, threatens regional stability.
The stakes appear asymmetrical. Lai called for continued U.S. arms sales as essential to maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait. Yet Trump has recently questioned a pending $14 billion weapons package, calling it a useful "negotiating chip" with Beijing. That framing contradicts decades of U.S. policy prohibiting discussion of Taiwan arms sales as bargaining tools with China.
Analysts see the potential call as fraught with danger for Taiwan. Lev Nachman, a political science professor at National Taiwan University, said Trump appears to have absorbed Beijing's perspective on Taiwan since leaving the summit. Trump now describes the island as "a problem that needs to be solved" rather than a partner needing support, Nachman observed. Any conversation would put Lai in a weakened position, forced to convince Trump to continue defensive arms sales while competing against what Trump sees as a larger strategic prize: stable ties with China.
"The likelihood of a call with Lai ending badly for Taiwan is relatively high," Nachman said. He added that such a call probably won't happen anyway, given Trump's apparent focus on maintaining smooth relations with Beijing ahead of a planned Xi visit to the U.S. in the fall.
China wasted no time opposing the idea. The Beijing government urged Washington on Thursday to handle Taiwan with "utmost prudence" and reiterated its blanket opposition to any official U.S.-Taiwan exchanges. China calls Lai a "separatist" and "troublemaker," viewing him as more resistant to unification pressure than his predecessor.
Taiwan has endured relentless military pressure from China in recent months. The island's defense ministry reported detecting seven Chinese warplanes, seven naval vessels, and one official ship operating in the vicinity Thursday alone. Such incursions have become near-daily occurrences.
Trump did speak with a Taiwanese leader once before. In December 2016, after winning the election but before taking office, he accepted a call from then-President Tsai Ing-wen. That conversation shocked officials in Washington and Beijing at the time, generating fierce backlash and accusations that Trump had misunderstood the diplomatic sensitivities involved. This moment carries similar stakes, with Taiwan hoping for a show of support but fearing Trump might view the island as expendable in pursuit of a broader China deal.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Taiwan's willingness to welcome Trump's call shows how far it will lean into any potential opening with Washington, even as the calculus behind such conversations has shifted dramatically in Beijing's favor."
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