President Trump sided with Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate runoff, endorsing the state's attorney general over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the final stretch before voters decide between the two Republicans next week.
The endorsement represents Trump's clearest signal yet that loyalty matters more to him than electability in party primaries. Cornyn, a five-term senator seeking his sixth, had been the frontrunner after March's initial primary vote, finishing ahead of Paxton with 42 percent to his opponent's 40.5 percent. Neither cleared the majority needed to win outright, triggering the May 26 runoff.
Trump had drafted a pro-Cornyn statement in the days after the first primary but ultimately reversed course. On Truth Social, he offered Paxton his complete endorsement, citing the attorney general's "loyalty" and his embrace of Trump's legislative priorities, including changes to the Senate filibuster and a voter identification bill called the Save America Act.
Cornyn's campaign had been built on the premise that only an establishment favorite could win the general election. He spent over $70 million on advertising to reach the runoff, tapped Trump's own 2024 pollster, and even introduced legislation to rename a highway "the Trump Interstate." None of it moved Trump to his side.
The endorsement rattled Senate Republicans. Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski said she was "supremely disappointed," warning that backing Paxton "puts that seat in jeopardy." Party strategists have long viewed Paxton as the weaker general election candidate, burdened by an indictment, impeachment, and accusations of marital infidelity. Democrats have nominated James Talarico, a state legislator and seminarian who has built a strong fundraising operation and made independent voters central to his strategy.
The seat itself carries outsized importance. Republicans control 53 Senate seats, and Democrats need to flip four to claim the majority in the fall. They are targeting North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska as their top pickup opportunities, but Trump's declining poll numbers have made Texas competitive in ways it rarely is. A Paxton loss could reshape the balance of power on Capitol Hill.
Paxton had executed a shrewd maneuver to win Trump over. After Trump's initial hints suggested he might endorse Cornyn, Paxton declared he would consider withdrawing from the race if Senate Republicans changed the filibuster rules to pass Trump's voter ID legislation. His team ensured Trump saw the statement, and Paxton later spoke with the president at Mar-a-Lago. The gambit worked. Cornyn eventually capitulated on the filibuster question, but it was too late.
Paxton's long record of defending Trump also tilted the scales. He filed a lawsuit to overturn the 2020 election results in swing states Trump lost. Cornyn, by contrast, had been skeptical of Trump's post-2020 challenges and expressed doubts about his 2024 comeback before eventually supporting him.
Trump appeared emboldened by his recent primary victories, particularly Bill Cassidy's defeat in Louisiana over the weekend. "There are those that say whoever I endorse is going to win," Trump said while touring a White House construction site. "Historically that's absolutely true."
The endorsement carries potential costs. One top Senate Republican strategist said Trump's super PAC should now prepare to spend an estimated $100 million to elect Paxton. His MAGA Inc. PAC holds a $350 million war chest but has not yet reserved summer or fall advertising time. Meanwhile, Trump's decision to oppose Cornyn and move against other critics like Representative Thomas Massie could complicate his working relationships with Senate Republicans whose votes he needs on legislative priorities ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Cornyn released a statement after the endorsement suggesting he remained viable without Trump's backing. He noted that Trump had called him a friend and that he voted with the president 99 percent of the time. Trump countered that Cornyn had not been "supportive" during tough times and was "very late" in backing his 2024 presidential bid.
Trump has dismissed Talarico's general election prospects, seizing on old videos of the Democrat discussing liberal positions. He mocked Talarico over remarks about a "vegan" campaign and comments about gender and religion, suggesting the Democrat was out of step with Texas voters. Talarico's team countered that regardless of whom Republicans nominate, the real opponent is "the billionaire megadonors and their corrupt political system."
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump is betting his endorsement magic can overcome a scandal-plagued candidate in a state Republicans cannot afford to lose. It's a high-stakes gamble that could reshape Senate control."
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