President Trump backed Ken Paxton for the Texas Senate seat on Tuesday, rejecting the incumbent Republican John Cornyn in a primary runoff that has alarmed GOP leaders worried about holding the state in November.
The endorsement came just days before the May 26 runoff vote and marked Trump's latest display of power within the Republican Party. After months of signals that he might support Cornyn, Trump swung behind Paxton, citing the attorney general's unwavering loyalty as the deciding factor.
"Ken Paxton has my Complete and Total Endorsement," Trump wrote on Truth Social, specifically hailing his "loyalty."
The move puts Trump at odds with his own party's leadership. Senior Republicans have privately and publicly warned that nominating Paxton could jeopardize what should be a safe Republican seat. Paxton faces a history of indictment, impeachment, and accusations of marital infidelity. Senate Republicans see him as the weaker general election candidate.
Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said she was "supremely disappointed" in the endorsement. "I think that this puts that seat in jeopardy," she said. "And how does that help strengthen the president's hand when we lose a state like Texas?"
Cornyn, seeking a fifth term, finished narrowly ahead of Paxton in the first primary round on March 3, capturing 42 percent to Paxton's 40.5 percent. Because no candidate won a majority, the runoff became necessary. Cornyn and his allies spent over 70 million dollars on advertising to reach the second round.
In the final stretch before Trump's endorsement, Cornyn pulled out aggressive efforts to win Trump's backing. He introduced legislation last week proposing to rename Interstate 47 in Trump's honor. "1,800 miles of open road to forever be known as the Trump Interstate," Cornyn wrote on social media.
The effort failed. Trump said Cornyn "was not supportive of me when times were tough" and criticized him for being "very late in backing me" during Trump's 2024 presidential run. Cornyn had expressed doubts about Trump's viability at that time.
Paxton took a different approach. When Trump's endorsement did not arrive immediately after the first primary, Paxton made a calculated move. He said he would "consider dropping out" but only if Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster to pass voter identification legislation that Trump championed. Paxton even texted the statement directly to Trump, according to people familiar with the exchange.
Paxton's allies warned Trump that the MAGA base would object to him leaving the race. They also circulated polls suggesting that even Trump's endorsement might not guarantee Cornyn victory in the primary runoff. Meanwhile, Paxton hammered Cornyn over his defense of the filibuster, calling him a "coward." Cornyn eventually relented and embraced the rule change, but it was too late to secure Trump's support.
Trump's decision reflects his dominance in Republican politics. "There are those that say whoever I endorse is going to win," Trump said while touring a White House construction site on Tuesday. "Historically that's absolutely true."
The endorsement came as Trump appears emboldened by recent primary victories. His allies defeated Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana over the weekend, and Trump has also turned against Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky.
Democrats have nominated James Talarico, a state legislator and seminarian, to challenge the Republican winner. Talarico has emerged as one of the party's best fund-raisers and has made outreach to independent voters central to his campaign. He responded to Paxton's endorsement by saying he was running against "the billionaire megadonors and their corrupt political system."
Trump has dismissed Talarico's viability, seizing on old viral videos of his comments supporting liberal positions. "I think the Democrats have a weird candidate," Trump said, referring to remarks Talarico had made years earlier. Trump's belief that Talarico is the weaker Democratic nominee may have given him more freedom to endorse Paxton despite the warnings from other Republican leaders.
Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats. Democrats need to flip four to claim a majority, while also defending two of their own vulnerable seats. National Democrats have targeted North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska as their best pickup opportunities. But Trump's polling numbers have some Democrats eyeing Texas and Iowa as newly competitive.
The endorsement has left some Republicans scrambling. One top Senate Republican strategist said Trump's super PAC should now pay the estimated 100 million dollars needed to elect Paxton. Trump's MAGA Inc. super PAC holds a war chest of nearly 350 million dollars but has not yet made any ad reservations for the summer or fall.
Trump's fractured relationships with key Republicans could complicate his standing in Washington over the next seven months. Retiring Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina recently held up Trump's pick to lead the Federal Reserve, a signal that some Republicans are willing to withhold cooperation when angered.
For Cornyn, the defeat appears near certain. He posted on social media after the endorsement that it was "now time for Texas Republican voters to decide," noting that Trump had "consistently called me a friend" and that he voted with the president 99 percent of the time. His campaign maintains he has a path forward without Trump's backing.
Paxton, for his part, expressed confidence that Trump's support would seal victory. "We all know that Donald Trump's endorsement is the most significant endorsement in the country," he said on "The Charlie Kirk Show" shortly before the news broke, "and maybe the most significant endorsement in my lifetime."
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump's choice of loyalty over electability could cost Republicans dearly in Texas, and his own party leaders seem to understand the risk better than he does."
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