Utah's Republican establishment has unified behind a sweeping push to shut down prediction markets, setting up a collision course with the Trump administration and a rapidly expanding industry now worth billions.
The battleground is one of America's most socially conservative states, where anti-gambling sentiment runs deep. Governor Spencer Cox declared in February that prediction markets are "gambling, pure and simple" and have "no place in Utah." The state's attorney general, Derek Brown, captured the sentiment bluntly: "A wolf in sheep's clothing is still a wolf."
Prediction platforms like Kalshi, valued at $22 billion, and Polymarket allow users to trade on outcomes ranging from elections to sports to geopolitical events. The companies argue they operate as federally regulated financial exchanges under commodities law, not as gambling operations subject to state rules. Users trade against each other while platforms collect fees, not set odds.
This technical distinction matters little in Utah, where the state legislature moved decisively in March to amend its constitution. Lawmakers expanded the legal definition of gambling to include "proposition bets" on individual actions or statistics, ensuring prediction markets fall squarely under the state's existing gambling prohibition. The measure passed the state senate unanimously and was signed by Cox.
"We have a lot of very conservative Republicans standing up to a conservative administration, essentially without dissent among them," said Republican state senator Brady Brammer, who sponsored the constitutional amendment. Brammer vowed lawmakers would "fight to the bitter end, to the US Supreme Court" before accepting prediction markets in Utah.
The timing creates an awkward dynamic. Under President Joe Biden's administration, federal regulators pursued restrictions on the platforms. But the Trump administration has reversed course. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees prediction markets, has defended its exclusive jurisdiction over the sector. Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr. serves as an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket, and Trump Media has explored launching its own prediction market product.
"We have a president who operates casinos," Brammer noted. "It's not overly surprising his agency heads are much more gamble-friendly than they previously have been."
Kalshi sued Cox and Brown in February, claiming Utah was preparing to block the company from operating in the state and arguing such a ban would interfere with federal law. The litigation remains ongoing. Kalshi won a recent victory in Arizona, where a federal judge blocked the state from pursuing criminal charges, but the company has faced setbacks in Nevada and Tennessee.
Utah's opposition stands out because of its unique political and religious foundation. The state, along with Hawaii, remains one of the few with no legalized gambling of any kind. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, which includes over half of Utah's population, teaches that gambling leads to addiction and selfishness. Nearly all state leadership, including Cox, the governor, congressional delegation, and legislative leadership, belong to the church.
A recent poll found 50% of Utahns view prediction markets as gambling, compared to 30% who do not. Democratic state senator Stephanie Pitcher, who supported the constitutional amendment, cited concerns about insider trading and market manipulation on the platforms.
Utah's fight has extended to Washington. Representative Blake Moore, a Republican, introduced the Event Contract Enforcement Act in March with Democratic support, seeking to ban certain prediction markets and empower states to regulate the practice. "I've never had more interest in a single bill we just introduced," Moore said. Republican Senator John Curtis introduced separate legislation to bar federal employees from using insider information to trade on these contracts and restrict the CFTC from permitting sports-related or casino-style betting.
Roughly 20 federal lawsuits have been filed nationwide testing whether prediction markets are financial instruments or gambling operations. Results have been mixed, leaving the ultimate question possibly heading to the Supreme Court.
Author James Rodriguez: "Utah's constitutional amendment essentially calls the federal government's bluff, and it's one bet Washington will struggle to collect on."
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