Rep. Julia Letlow has secured a spot in Louisiana's Republican Senate runoff after the March primary, with the defining battle now shaping up between her and either incumbent Bill Cassidy or state Treasurer John Fleming for the June 27 contest.
Letlow, who holds President Donald Trump's endorsement and backing from GOP Gov. Jeff Landry, enters the runoff with commanding momentum. She has significantly outpaced both Fleming and Cassidy, who are now locked in a fight for second place. The race will head to a runoff because no candidate is projected to secure majority support in the initial round.
Cassidy's position has grown precarious. The two-term senator has spent heavily, with his campaign and allied groups accounting for a majority of the $36 million in total ad spending, yet he remains in third place. He had previously tried to temper expectations, acknowledging the race was "Letlow's to lose" while maintaining confidence he would advance to the runoff.
The senator's 2021 impeachment vote against Trump has emerged as a central vulnerability. Cassidy acknowledged the vote "might be" a liability heading into the primary, though he argued he had consistently supported Trump's policies since then. "I tell people, 'Hey, you're married? Did ever your spouse do something that you didn't really like?' And you work through it," Cassidy said, framing the dispute as something the party could move past.
That message has not resonated with all voters. Elias Jacob FaKouri, a Fleming backer, voiced frustration at a Baton Rouge polling place: "He tried to impeach Trump, and Trump helped him get elected. That's pretty low. It is time for him to go."
Other Cassidy supporters have defended his independence from Trump, citing it as a strength. "It shows that he's less influenced by a party, which I like," voter Donny Gutierrez said, calling for more senators willing to break ranks.
Cassidy has also faced scrutiny from his clash with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over vaccines during Kennedy's confirmation process. The senator voted to confirm Kennedy while trying to thread a needle between criticizing HHS positions without antagonizing the president.
Letlow has dismissed attacks on her stock trades and past work on diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives while employed at the University of Louisiana, which Cassidy and allies dubbed "Liberal Letlow." She maintains a third party manages her trades and that she has evolved on DEI matters. "Cassidy is lying about me because he can't defend his own record," she told NBC News last month.
The Trump endorsement has become central to Letlow's campaign strategy. She has labeled both Cassidy and Fleming "never Trumpers" and told NBC News the president's backing represents "a huge source of energy for our campaign, because Louisiana Republicans trust President Trump." Trump has appeared in ads for Letlow and recently posted on Truth Social blaming Cassidy for a failed surgeon general nomination while calling him a "disloyal disaster."
Fleming, the third candidate in the primary race, has positioned himself as Trump's true ally despite lacking the president's official endorsement. The former congressman and Trump administration official loaned his campaign $10.6 million and launched his bid in December 2024, well before Letlow entered the race. He claims someone associated with the Trump administration offered him a job to drop out and clear a path for Letlow against Cassidy, though the White House did not respond to requests for comment.
Fleming, who served in Congress from 2009 to 2017 as a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, has cast himself as the "true conservative" in the race who was "MAGA before MAGA was cool." He ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2016 before being elected state treasurer in 2023.
Trump's engagement with the runoff remains unclear. A Trump political adviser recently indicated the president's focus is currently on defeating Kentucky GOP Rep. Thomas Massie in a separate primary, suggesting Trump does not view the Cassidy race with the same urgency. The president has not traveled to Louisiana to campaign for Letlow ahead of the primary, though his social media activity and TV ads show some level of involvement.
No elected Republican senator has lost a primary since 2012, placing Cassidy in historically rare political danger despite the traditional advantage of incumbency. Republicans are expected to dominate in the general election this fall. Trump won Louisiana by 22 points in 2024, and the party has dominated recent statewide contests.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Cassidy's impeachment vote is proving to be his political death sentence in a state that now demands absolute loyalty to Trump, and money spent on television ads cannot undo that damage."
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