Louisiana voters head to the polls Saturday in a race that will test whether a Republican senator can survive his 2021 vote to convict Donald Trump, even with Senate leadership backing and a legislative record to show for it.
Sen. Bill Cassidy, a two-term physician and chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, faces primary challengers in Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow and state Treasurer John Fleming. If no candidate wins a majority, the top two advance to a June 27 runoff.
Cassidy has not shied from the impeachment vote, but he acknowledged last month it "might" be a liability. He has instead emphasized his ability to pass legislation and get it signed into law, a record his opponents cannot match. Senate Majority Leader John Thune offered public backing on Thursday. "Bill Cassidy has been a terrific senator for Louisiana," Thune said.
Trump weighed in Friday on Truth Social, endorsing Letlow without directly attacking Cassidy as he had weeks earlier. "I know Julia well, have seen her tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and she is a TOTAL WINNER," the president wrote, highlighting her as a mother and someone who "would continue doing so in the United States Senate."
The numbers tell a harsh story for Republicans who voted to impeach or convict Trump. Among 10 House Republicans and 7 Senate Republicans who supported conviction in 2021, only three won re-election. All three ran in all-party "jungle" primaries that let them appeal beyond core GOP voters. Louisiana changed the rules before this race, shifting from that model to a closed Republican primary at the behest of Gov. Jeff Landry, who backs Letlow.
Cassidy has accused Landry of deliberately tilting the playing field. On a Friday call with reporters, he said unaffiliated voters had called his office unable to cast ballots for him. "People are confused, and it's a terrible system for this election," he said. His campaign manager Kate Larkin echoed the complaint in a statement, calling it "an intentionally difficult process" designed to help Letlow.
The battles extend beyond impeachment. Cassidy has clashed with Trump's Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over vaccine skepticism, though he cast the deciding vote to confirm Kennedy. This month, Trump blamed Cassidy for blocking his surgeon general nominee Casey Means, a wellness influencer and Kennedy ally, forcing Trump to pick someone else. The snubs made Cassidy a target of Kennedy's "Make American Healthy Again" movement, with the associated MAHA PAC spending hundreds of thousands against him.
Overall spending in the race has topped $30 million. Cassidy's supporters have spent $21.8 million on ads, compared to $9.8 million for Letlow and $1.5 million for Fleming, according to ad tracker AdImpact. Letow has leaned heavily into the MAHA messaging in recent weeks, while Cassidy has attacked her stock trades and previous support for diversity initiatives when she worked at the University of Louisiana.
Fleming has remained in the race despite Trump's endorsement of Letlow. He has claimed he was offered a Trump administration position to drop out but declined. His campaign has focused on carbon capture policies and positioning himself as the only "true conservative" in the field.
Cassidy has publicly declared Letlow "the person to beat" but expressed confidence in his ultimate victory. "She is the person to beat," he said in early May. If Letlow fails to reach a runoff, "then I would be in against Dr. Fleming, and we would have accomplished our mission."
House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican close to all three candidates, stayed neutral. "Julia is like a sister to me," he told NBC News. "My awkward situation is I'm also close to the other candidates." Fleming was Johnson's predecessor and his first endorser for the seat, while Johnson has "worked well" with Cassidy.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Cassidy built a compelling record in the Senate, but he bet everything on voters caring more about accomplishments than party loyalty to Trump. Saturday will test whether that bet survives a rigged game."
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