The federal government has put forward a sweeping proposal to slash water deliveries to the Southwest by as much as 40 percent, marking an escalation in the crisis gripping the Colorado River as reservoirs hit historically low levels.
A top Arizona water official disclosed the Trump administration's 10-year plan at a state meeting Wednesday. The proposal would cut up to 3 million acre-feet annually from supplies flowing to Arizona, California, and Nevada, with reductions to be reassessed every two years. The plan is slated for finalization in June.
Tom Buschatzke, director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources, called the anticipated cuts "sobering." The scale of the reduction is staggering: 3 million acre-feet could supply between 6 million and 9 million households for a year, exceeding the total number of homes in Arizona and Nevada combined.
The cuts would hit Arizona particularly hard. Buschatzke warned that Arizona and its Central Arizona Project, the crucial canal delivering Colorado River water to central and southern regions of the state, could face flows approaching zero.
Federal officials have indicated the reductions would follow the seniority system embedded in the 1922 Colorado River Compact, which grants California the first claim on water. Implementation could occur through existing law or through negotiated state agreements.
The federal step-in comes after months of deadlock. Seven states dependent on the river missed a February deadline to hammer out a cost-sharing plan for mandatory cuts. The Colorado River, which supplies roughly 40 million people across the American West, has lost about 27.8 million acre-feet of groundwater over two decades due to chronic overuse. This year's record snow drought worsened the squeeze.
The political divide runs deep. Upper basin states, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico, have resisted bearing cuts, arguing that downstream states bear responsibility for the shortage. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum signaled earlier this year that the Bureau of Reclamation would intervene to resolve the dispute.
Two weeks before the federal proposal surfaced, California, Arizona, and Nevada announced their own plan: voluntary reductions totaling 3.25 million acre-feet through 2028. Under that offer, Arizona would cut 760 acre-feet, California 440 acre-feet, and Nevada 50 acre-feet. But the proposal remains uncertain and hinges on cooperation from state water agencies and federal approval. The Bureau of Reclamation's Phoenix office is still evaluating its feasibility.
Patrick Adams, Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs' senior water policy adviser, signaled the state's alarm at the federal timeline and scope. "The risk of 3m acre-feet of reductions only in the lower basin is something that's quite alarming to us," Adams said during public comment. "Things are moving very quickly."
Author James Rodriguez: "The federal government is forcing the issue, and Arizona is staring at the possibility of cuts that could devastate agriculture and growth in the state, which is exactly what the lower basin states feared would happen."
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