Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp is rolling the dice on Derek Dooley, a former college football coach with no political experience, in what could be a defining test of his influence over the Republican Party. With his governorship ending, Kemp has invested heavily in Dooley's bid to replace Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, launching TV ads that explicitly ask voters to send Dooley to the Senate as "one last thing" before Kemp leaves office.
The gamble is substantial. Kemp's political operation, his personal network, and his PAC, Hardworking Americans Inc., have funneled more than $3 million into pro-Dooley ads and text messages. He has campaigned alongside Dooley across Georgia and personally called major donors to build support. No recent Georgia governor, political observers say, has staked so much personal capital on a single candidate.
"If Dooley's able to pull it off, it shows that Kemp is ready to put his own imprint on not just the Georgia Republican Party, but the national Republican Party," said Jay Morgan, a former Georgia GOP executive director who noted in 30 years of state politics he has "never seen a governor put so much of his personal capital on the line."
The primary race is crowded. Dooley faces GOP Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter, both of whom have positioned themselves as staunch Trump allies. No candidate is expected to win an outright majority in Tuesday's vote, which would trigger a runoff on June 16 between the top two finishers. Collins is also defending against an ongoing ethics investigation into allegations of misuse of congressional funds, which he has dismissed as "bogus."
Dooley has positioned himself differently. While he says he supports Trump, he is running as a political outsider, arguing that his opponents' congressional records could become liabilities against Ossoff in November. "I have a very strong belief it's going to take a political outsider to beat Jon Ossoff in this race," Kemp said at a recent campaign event in Habersham County.
The Dooley family connection runs deep. Derek's father, Vince, was a legendary football coach at the University of Georgia, and Derek himself headed the football program at the University of Tennessee. Kemp is personally close with the family and has been backing Dooley since deciding not to run for Senate himself.
For Kemp, the outcome carries implications far beyond Georgia. The governor, a conservative who won re-election in a battleground state despite Trump's opposition in 2022, is widely expected to consider a presidential run in 2028 when term limits end. How Dooley performs could signal whether Kemp can translate his state-level clout into broader Republican influence.
One GOP strategist warned that a Dooley loss could undermine Kemp's pitch to presidential primary voters. "If he can't get a candidate across the line in his own state, I think it's going to be very difficult for him to go to Iowa and get people to fund that proof of concept," the strategist said. Kemp has told reporters he is "focused on 2026" and declined to engage questions about a White House bid. An adviser insisted Kemp is "1,000%" focused on next year and is "not thinking about legacy at this point in time."
Dooley acknowledges the leverage Kemp has provided. "When you're a political outsider and you have no history in politics, the one thing that I've learned is either you gotta have somebody supporting you that has a little political history to help you get off the ground, or you gotta have a lot of money," Dooley said in a phone interview. "It's one or the other, and I don't have a lot of money." Kemp connected him with donors and supporters early on, Dooley said, giving him access to people with influence and helping him build momentum.
Still, Dooley is careful not to lean entirely on Kemp. "I have to go sell myself and my vision and how I'm going to represent the state, because Gov. Kemp's not on the ballot," he said. Kemp's endorsement, Dooley added, "is not going to win me the election. I have to go earn it from every voter out there in Georgia."
Kemp's backing has already reshaped the race. The AJC reported that his endorsement prompted at least one candidate to drop out. Meanwhile, neither Collins nor Carter has attacked Dooley over Kemp's past clashes with Trump, a significant restraint given Trump's grip on Republican voters. Both have expressed hope that Kemp might eventually support them if the race reaches a runoff.
The broader backdrop is challenging for Republicans. Ossoff has raised a whopping $32 million and is a top target for the GOP Senate majority, but several state Republicans are anxious about their prospects. Trump's approval ratings have dropped, and some operatives have privately likened the eventual GOP nominee to a "sacrificial lamb." The extended primary could also drain party resources before the November general election.
Trump remains a wild card. The former president has stayed neutral so far, though all three candidates are angling for his backing. Trump and Kemp have largely reconciled since their bitter 2020 clash over election integrity, when Trump tried to oust the governor by backing David Perdue. Kemp won that primary by 52 points. The two men now speak "often," according to Kemp advisers.
Dooley has carefully navigated the Trump-Kemp divide. He has said he wants to earn Trump's support and met with the president in August. Yet when asked directly whether he agrees with Kemp that the 2020 election in Georgia was not stolen, Dooley twice declined to answer, instead noting that "we all know there were a lot of issues in 2020" and saying he wanted to focus on 2026.
Kemp's popularity with Georgia Republicans has not been damaged by his past conflict with Trump. An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll found 85% of likely GOP primary voters approved of Kemp's job performance, with 55% strongly approving. Even some Trump supporters have softened their stance. Debbie Dooley, a tea party activist who backed Perdue against Kemp in 2022 and organized censure efforts against the governor after 2020, said some Trump supporters are "having second thoughts" about their past opposition to Kemp.
"They realize he can help us take back that Senate seat from Ossoff and his record of success in passing conservative agenda," she said. "He stood strong when even Donald Trump was criticizing him. And I think he gained a lot of respect for that."
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Kemp has turned a Senate primary into a referendum on his own political future, and it's a gamble that could either cement him as a kingmaker or expose the limits of executive power in a Trump-dominated party."
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