Taiwan had braced for the worst as Donald Trump flew into Beijing. The island's leadership worried the unpredictable US president might trade away decades of American support for the democratic nation in exchange for Chinese help on other fronts, particularly Iran policy. But when Trump and Xi Jinping emerged from their talks Thursday, the outcome felt like a narrow escape.
Trump called the meeting "great" but pointedly avoided answering questions about Taiwan. The White House readout of the summit made no mention of the island at all. For Taipei, the silence was the best possible news.
"Taiwan would rather have Taiwan not mentioned than Taiwan mentioned in a way that marks a departure from longstanding US policy," said William Yang, a senior analyst at the Crisis Group. "They would welcome Taiwan being mentioned as little as possible."
Xi, for his part, delivered a thinly veiled warning. He told Trump that if the Taiwan issue is handled properly, the US-China relationship will stay stable, but mishandle it and the two powers could find themselves in conflict. Experts read this as Xi drawing a hard line without making specific demands.
Before the summit, analysts had speculated that Trump might use Taiwan as a bargaining chip, possibly trading concessions on the island in return for Chinese support in resolving his administration's conflict with Iran. That calculation appears not to have materialized, at least not in any overt way.
"Xi did not openly ask Trump to say or commit something on Taiwan," said Alexander Huang, chair of Taiwan's Council on Strategic and Wargaming Studies. "This is because Xi believes the Taiwan question should be handled strictly between Taipei and Beijing. Openly asking Trump for specific words or actions would give the impression that Taiwan is a bargaining chip up for trade."
The geopolitical stakes are enormous. Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province and refuses to renounce the use of force to seize it. The US acknowledges China's claim but maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity, supplying Taiwan with weapons and leaving open the question of whether it would intervene if China attacked.
Taiwan's government issued a swift response to Xi's comments, stating that the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are not subordinate to one another. But beyond this customary posturing, Taipei was quietly satisfied with the outcome.
The relief in Taiwan's capital comes at a moment of real military tension. Beijing has been pressing the US to halt arms sales to the island. In December, Trump's administration approved an $11 billion weapons package for Taiwan, and another package worth roughly $14 billion has been awaiting his approval for months. A bipartisan group of US senators recently urged Trump to move forward with the pending sale.
On Friday, Taiwan's parliament also ended a budget impasse when opposition parties passed a $25 billion defense budget aimed at financing weapons purchases, a sign that the island is treating its security seriously regardless of what Washington does.
Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet again Friday, and analysts expect that session to focus on trade and investment deals rather than the Taiwan question. By then, Taipei may already be breathing easier.
Author James Rodriguez: "Xi's refusal to make Taiwan a bargaining chip says more about Beijing's confidence than Trump's commitment, but either way, Taiwan got the outcome it needed most: American silence instead of American betrayal."
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