Gavin Newsom's best-laid plans for his own future just collided with reality. On the same day the California governor notched a major win on redistricting, Senator Alex Padilla abruptly pulled the plug on a gubernatorial run, forcing Newsom to scramble for a successor who won't undermine his 2028 presidential prospects.
The stakes are clear. A Republican governor taking over California would be a public rebuke of Newsom's tenure in a reliably blue state, exactly the kind of liability that could cripple his national ambitions. Yet the Democratic field is fractured, with strong candidates either declining to run or imploding under scrutiny.
Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis dropped out last August. Attorney General Rob Bonta decided against running. Kamala Harris passed. Eric Swalwell exited after sexual misconduct allegations he denies. Padilla's surprise withdrawal in early November left the governor without his preferred heir apparent.
What remains is a crop of candidates each carrying baggage that frustrates the governor. Xavier Becerra, the former HHS secretary, has surged in polls since Swalwell's collapse, but some Democrats worry he would wilt in a general election matchup. Others fret he was passive during his Biden administration tenure, dodging tough assignments.
Billionaire Tom Steyer spent over $100 million to get into the race, then clashed with Newsom's team by running ads during the redistricting campaign that undercut the governor's strategy. Former congresswoman Katie Porter has languished in single digits after viral videos showed her snapping at staff and reporters. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan looked poised to challenge Newsom from the left on crime and homelessness, penning an op-ed last year accusing the governor of a "trollish" social media strategy that hurt California's welfare.
Then Mahan executed a sharp turn. Since launching his statewide campaign this year, he has repositioned himself as Newsom's admirer, telling Axios in March that the governor is "a generational talent" and likely to be the party's presidential nominee. He fired chief strategist Eric Jaye, who had a brutal falling out with Newsom in 2009. He tapped into the same Silicon Valley donor network backing Newsom, including billionaire Michael Moritz, who funded the governor's redistricting measure and is now backing Mahan.
Yet Mahan still kept some distance. Asked at a recent debate to assess Newsom's governorship, Mahan chose a single word: "Incomplete."
The primary is June 2, and California's "jungle primary" system creates a phantom threat hovering over the race. If Republicans finish first and second, Democrats get locked out of the general entirely. Recent polling suggests it is possible. Newsom's team has been working quietly to boost Democratic turnout. If a Republican lockout becomes a genuine danger, Newsom may have no choice but to endorse one Democrat and risk appearing to pick California's next governor from the Oval Office.
That choice is harder than it looks. Newsom privately expressed frustration with a CNN story last April that quoted his critiques of multiple candidates, feeling it misrepresented his thinking. He prefers to maintain good relations with whoever wins. But the weakness of the field and the stakes of a potential Republican takeover may force his hand within weeks.
Author James Rodriguez: "This is the kind of succession mess that sinks presidencies before they start. Newsom's nightmare is now on a deadline."
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