Democrats thought they had momentum two and a half weeks ago. Virginia voters had narrowly approved their plan to redraw the state's congressional map, effectively evening out the national redistricting score. Then everything collapsed.
A cascade of court rulings, legislative maneuvers, and political setbacks over the past week has handed Republicans a commanding advantage in the redistricting wars heading into the midterms. The damage is already quantifiable: Republicans could pick up as many as 14 seats from the maps enacted over the past year, compared to six for Democrats.
The reversal began just days after Virginia's referendum passed. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states can almost never consider race when drawing district lines, invalidating Louisiana's map and threatening majority-minority districts held by Democrats across the country. On the same day, Florida's Republican-led Legislature approved a redrawn map that could flip as many as four House seats red, erasing any net Democratic gain from Virginia.
The momentum never stopped swinging against Democrats. Louisiana moved to redraw its map immediately after the Supreme Court cleared the way. Tennessee's GOP-controlled Legislature carved up the state's only majority-Black district, represented by Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen, positioning Republicans to pick up another seat. South Carolina Republicans left the door open to redrawing their map, which currently includes just one Democratic seat held by Rep. Jim Clyburn.
But the final blow came this morning. Virginia's Supreme Court overturned the very referendum that had sparked Democratic optimism just weeks earlier. The court ruled that Democrats failed to follow proper procedures in placing the constitutional amendment on the ballot, blocking the map that would have created four additional Democratic-friendly districts.
The implications are stark. Democrats need to flip just three House seats to win control of the chamber in November. The political climate still generally favors them. But the redistricting advantage Republicans have secured means they are entering the midterm fight with structural advantages that will make that path considerably harder.
Trump's power play carries hidden costs
Even as Republicans solidify their gerrymandering edge, President Donald Trump's outsized influence over the GOP is presenting a different kind of problem for the party heading into the general election.
Trump's sway over primary voters is undeniable. In Indiana, his endorsed candidates knocked off five of seven state senators who had blocked his redistricting push. One of those defeated senators, Greg Walker, warned that the message sent was one of retribution, not governance. Trump has also narrowed the Kentucky Senate field with his endorsement of Rep. Andy Barr, prompting rival Nate Morris to drop out despite backing from other Trump allies. More primary tests of Trump's influence are coming in Louisiana and Kentucky later this month.
What troubles Republicans, though, is the gap between Trump's dominance in primaries and his weakness in general election polling. His approval rating regularly sits below 40 percent, with two recent surveys showing him at 37 percent. Americans remain deeply frustrated with his handling of the economy. A recent NPR/PBS/Marist poll found 61 percent disapprove of Trump's economic stewardship, and a similar share blame him for rising gas prices and believe the economy is not working for them.
That disconnect matters because the president's party almost always loses seats in a midterm election. Republicans are banking on their redistricting gains to cushion the blow of Trump's unpopularity. But the math is unforgiving: no amount of favorable maps can offset a 37 percent approval rating and widespread economic discontent when voters head to the polls.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Democrats' redistricting collapse is a tactical disaster, but Republicans are fooling themselves if they think friendly maps will save them from a president dragging the party down on the economy."
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